UUUUUUUUGGGGHHHH.
For those of us who love the Oscars, Oscar season is always a complicated time. On one hand, the Oscars are happening, and that’s pretty cool. But on the other hand, the presence of the Oscars serves no real purpose but to remind everyone how much they fundamentally suck. The nominations, revealed today, for this year’s iteration of the awards, are an encapsulation of why the Oscars are so cool and why they suck so.
For this post, I will be diving into the nods for the following categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best International Feature Film, Best Documentary Feature, Best Original Score, Best Production Design, and Best Costume Design. I will be editorializing a disgusting amount, and offering up varying degrees of knowledge based on how much I know about these categories. For each category, I will go through the snubs, the surprises, what should win, and what’s going to win, as well as providing a fact about the category that will inevitably just devolve into me cracking bad jokes. Let’s start off with an overview of the nomination totals.
Leading the pack with 10 each were 1917, The Irishman, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Following those is- what’s that? I forgot something? OH. OH CRAP. THAT’S EDGY CLOWN’S MUSIC.
LIVING IN SOCIETY. The film, which I shall not call by its godforsaken real name for fear of summoning its evil spirit, shall for the duration of this post be Edgy Clown. Edgy Clown’s dominance, scoring 11 nominations, is depressing proof of the idiocy of these awards. Legitimately the worst major studio release of the year scored the most nods, above such masterpieces as Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and The Irishman. Those 11 nods could have gone to more deserving films that were completely shut out such as Uncut Gems (a pipe dream, I’m aware, but man it would’ve been so cool), and Us (not a pipe dream, an infuriating snub, but I’ll get to that later). Anyway, I’ll have plenty of time to complain about Edgy Clown in the actual awards, unfortunately, so let’s get started.
Best Picture
The nominees: 1917, Ford V. Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
The surprises: Nope. Ford V Ferrari is a bit of a surprise, but there’s no real shock here.
The snubs: I mean, Uncut Gems, The Lighthouse, Us, Pain and Glory, any number of masterpieces from this year that never had a shot. In terms of actual strong contenders that didn’t make it, there’s really nothing. Bombshell looked strong for a bit, Knives Out had a day or two where it appeared to maybe have something, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood looked like a lock well before the process even started but fizzled out in the months since it actually got released. There’s no outrageous “what, no If Beale Street Could Talk???” this year because those great ones that didn’t make it never looked like they could.
What should win:
Parasite better win or else. But in the (sadly likely) event that it doesn’t pull it off, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Little Women, and The Irishman are totally valid winners.
What will win: 1917. The other contenders are Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Edgy Clown, which looks like an even stronger contender than before in the wake of its appalling double digit nomination figure, and they could all absolutely win. But 1917 is taking everything. It even managed a surprise screenplay nod, and has been winning the major awards from everywhere. it just feels to me like the winner from here. However, Parasite’s SAG win puts it right in there. It’s gonna be one of those 2. The DGAs will shed more light, although I’m still saying 1917.
Fun Fact: The race is notable for the presence of Parasite, South Korea’s first ever nominee in any category, including foreign language film. It’s also notable for squandering this goodwill by nominating Edgy Clown, which is basically a war crime.
Best Director
The nominees: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Todd Philips (Edgy Clown), Sam Mendes (1917), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
The surprises: Philips looked vulnerable following his DGA nomination miss, but winds up here anyway over such speculative candidates as Pedro Almodovar, Greta Gerwig, The Safdie Brothers, and Taika Waititi, who got the fifth DGA spot.
The snubs: Those people I listed above, or really any women. This is getting ridiculous.
Who should win: Bong Joon-ho, not only for his magnificent achievement this year, but as sort of an apology for ignoring Okja, the best film of 2017. (Disclaimer: that statement does not represent any sort of rational thought on what is actually the best film of 2017, although it very well may be Okja, it is merely a manifestation of the rush I get from thinking about Okja.
Who will win: Bong or Mendes. Bong could win for the reason Cuaron won it last year: the Academy saying “look, we’re kinda trying, okay?”. Mendes looks good for the technical achievement of 1917.
Fun fact: Women also direct movies.
Best Actor
The Nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time In Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Edgy Clown), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
The Surprises: Pryce and Banderas were in the conversation, but their recognition wasn’t really a guarantee, especially in a field this crowded. Pryce really looked bad based on how his film was doing, but managed to sneak in here.
The Snubs: Adam Sandler. In Uncut Gems, Sandler gives one of the year’s best performances, but gets no Oscar love for it. Robert De Niro for The Irishman falls into this category as well, as does Robert Pattinson for The Lighthouse (although he really didn’t have a shot. Taron Egerton was getting forecasted a lot for Rocketman, so his exclusion comes as something of a surprise.
Who should win: Antonio Banderas. He’s so transcendentally brilliant in Pain and Glory that he should probably win every award in the entire show for good measure. It is, however, hard to pick against DiCaprio giving maybe his career best performance in Hollywood, which is a heavy statement.
Who will win: *sigh*. Phoenix. It’s such a shame that Joaquin Phoenix, one of the greatest actors of his generation, will win his Oscar for his subpar work in Edgy Clown, as opposed to his historically brilliant turns in such films as The Master, Her, You Were Never Really Here, and even Gladiator. To his credit, Phoenix does his best with abysmal material, but the sheer dog crap that is the script sinks the performance to the point of no return.
Fun fact: Pryce becomes the first (tied, I guess) person to be nominated for an Oscar for playing a pope. Which sounds cool until you look up how many cinematic portrayals of popes there have actually been.
Best Actress
The nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
The surprises: Erivo was kind of a shock, but not really.
The snubs: I’ll get the public uproar over Awkwafina missing for The Farewell out of the way before I launch into the day’s biggest crime: the overlooking of Lupita Nyong’o’s all time great performance(s) in Us. I mean what the hell, guys? Maybe I’m just a dual performance sucker (my favorite Gyllenhaal role is Enemy), but Nyong’o gave the best performance of the whole year (save maybe for Banderas). It just makes no sense.
Who should win: Nyong’o’s snub casts a pall over this race, as does the shoo-in win of Zellweger, but Ronan is truly fantastic and should be recognized.
Who will win: Zellweger. No contest. This is maybe the easiest race to predict, with the possible exception of cinematography. She has all the momentum, all the buzz, and she’s just winning everything. This is gonna be a bloodbath.
Fun fact: With a win in this category or in original song, Cynthia Erivo would become an EGOT winner. This is because the other three necessary awards bodies all recognized her work in Bad Times in The El Royale and just gave her all their awards (Disclaimer: no).
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
The surprises: Bates came out of nowhere. I’ve been looking at these nominees all day and I came to her name just now and still did a double take.
The snubs: Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers has twitter in flames, and comes as a massive shock. She looked like a total lock for at least a nod, and maybe a threat to win.
Who should win: Dern, not only because the performance rules, but also as a lifetime achievement award. Justice for the Blue Velvet snub! Pugh would also absolutely be acceptable. The trend between those two is that they were both better in other things this year (Dern in Little Women and Pugh in Midsommar), but they also ruled in their nominated roles. I’m saying Dern should win, even though Pugh might be a bit better, because Pugh is gonna be a star for a long time, and it just feels like Dern’s year.
Who will win: Dern, for the reasons I listed above. However, I don’t think you can count out Johansson, who pulled off two nods in the same year and as such may get extra attention, nor can you fully discount Margot Robbie or Florence Pugh, who give brilliant yet ignored performances in other movies.
Fun fact: After Bombshell’s critical lashing, the studio switched its Oscar campaigning to Knives Out. Bombshell pulled off more nominations, including this one.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
The surprises: Hopkins, kinda. Again, Two Popes really didn’t look good for these.
The snubs: Song Kang Ho missing for Parasite is a tragedy, as is Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse (seemed less likely, but still).
Who should win: This is tough. Pesci and Pacino are both so, so brilliant in Irishman. Pitt in Hollywood is tremendous. I’m going with Pesci, although I would be ecstatic with a win for either of the other two. It would probably by Pitt, except I think that it’s category fraud.
Who will win: Pitt. He has the momentum, plus he’s the only nominee without an Oscar for acting (he’s won for producing 12 Years a Slave). Pesci and Pacino are his major threats, and coming from the same movie they could split the vote.
Fun fact: I read today that this is the first acting category of the 21st century not to feature a nominee with a crying scene. That is insane and also cool as hell. I can’t verify that, but I believe it because it sounds right and also I don’t want to live in a world where something that outrageous can’t be true.
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees: Knives Out, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
The surprises: Knives Out and 1917 were far from guarantees here.
The snubs: Booksmart and The Farewell are the popular consensus snubs here. People were also pulling for Hustlers and Us in this one, even though those were longshots.
What should win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Tarantino is almost always the answer in this category when he’s in it.
What will win: It’s starting to look more and more like Parasite, but it could go either way between it and Hollywood. Either way, this is the best Oscars race ever. There is some justice.
Fun fact: Rian Johnson, director of The Last Jedi, is still enduring hate from people still upset about one of the best ever Star Wars movies. He is now an Oscar nominee. Screw you, people who are so mad about a great movie that they continue to torment its creator.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Little Women, The Two Popes
The surprises: none.
The snubs: nothing high profile. This was pretty clearly the lineup.
What should win: Irishman or Little Women. These are the two that aren’t war crimes, and they’re both phenomenal. Edgy Clown has maybe the worst screenplay I’ve ever seen in a movie, and Jojo Rabbit’s is so painfully tone deaf. Two Popes isn’t great either: I like the movie, but Anthony McCarten is a menace, a dangerous hack who thinks it’s okay to drop a six-hour detour into the middle of a great character piece. Irishman gave us such lines as “you might be demonstrating a failure to show appreciation”, which is usable literally every day in random conversation. As incredible as Little Women is, I’m saying give it to The Irishman.
What will win: Jojo Rabbit, because this is hell.
Fun fact: Last year, Anthony McCarten wrote Bohemian Rhapsody, a script so embarrassingly bad I declared it the worst ever. This year, he goes up against Edgy Clown, the screenplay that dethroned it.
Best Cinematography
The nominees: The Irishman, Edgy Clown, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The surprises: something as great yet weird as The Lighthouse getting any recognition is always a surprise, and it’s always cool.
The snubs: Parasite getting shafted in favor of Edgy Clown is a war crime. Ad Astra missing is also not great, but that really didn’t have much buzz.
What should win: I finally saw 1917. It’s that. Maybe the greatest cinematography of any movie since Barry Lyndon (hyperbole. But maybe.) I’m keeping the Lighthouse still there because I can and because I would like to continue celebrating both the existence of that movie and the fact that it got an Oscar nomination.
Yeah man. That’s the stuff.
What will win: 1917. Not even close.
Best Film Editing
The nominees: Ford V Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Parasite
The surprises: Edgy Clown and Jojo Rabbit weren’t supposed to be here.
The snubs: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood missing is disgraceful. 1917 had some buzz (it won the critics choice award for editing last night), which was immediately met with backlash regarding how little editing is required for the one take gambit.
What should win: Parasite. Without saying too much, there’s one sequence towards the middle of the film that stands out as one of the best edited in recent memory. Irishman is a viable contender too (Thelma is the GOAT). The editing in Edgy Clown sucks, so hopefully it isn’t that. I just really dislike Edgy Clown.
What will win: Irishman? I think? Not sure.
Fun fact: this is a critical category for BP hopefuls. Since 1989, only one BP winner missed a nod in this category, which is bad news for titanic candidates Once Upon a time in Hollywood and 1917. HOWEVER: the one winner to miss an editing nod… was Birdman, the last major one-take film. Does this mean this doesn’t really matter for 1917? It’s certainly interesting.
Best International Feature Film
The Nominees: Corpus Christi, Honeyland, Les Miserables, Pain and Glory, Parasite
The surprises: Not really anything.
The snubs: Celine Sciamma’s Portrait of a Lady on Fire wasn’t even up for consideration due to France’s submission of Les Miserables, but the critical adoration it received qualify it for a mention here. Mati Diop’s Atlantics is the other recipient of massive acclaim that was left out.
What should win: Parasite is basically the best movie ever, but DAMN do I love Pain and Glory. Give this to Pain and Glory and BP to Parasite and we’ll call it even.
What will win: Parasite. Despite what I’m about to tell you, there’s no stopping it here.
Fun fact: Parasite’s distributor, Neon, hasn’t campaigned in this category at all, in the hopes that it will be considered more strongly in other categories, such as BP. This complicates things slightly, because if it works, we’d be in uncharted territory. But it won’t.
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees: American Factory, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, For Sama, Honeyland
The surprises: Two foreign language contenders, in For Sama and Honeyland.
The snubs: This marks the second year in a row where the heavy favorite to win the whole category (Won’t You Be My Neighbor) has missed a nod. This year, it’s Apollo 11.
What should win: Honeyland? Honeyland is pretty good.
What will win: Apollo 11’s snub has thrown this into chaos, so I don’t really know. I’m saying American Factory, because of the involvement of Higher Ground Productions, the production company founded by Barack and Michelle Obama.
Fun fact: It’s the Obama thing.
Best Original Score
The nominees: Edgy Clown, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The surprises: none.
The snubs: MIDSOMMAR. But that was never getting in, nor did I have any hope of that, so I’ll reserve my anger for other things.
What should win: 1917! I had this as Edgy Clown, but now I can officially say that it should win zero awards! To hell with it! Thomas Newman’s 1917 work is, if not clearly better, clearly used better. It may, at times, be a bit much, but who cares, it’s a movie predicated on being too much, and it manages to pull it off. Hildur Guðnadóttir’s Edgy Clown score is still exceptional. If only it had a better movie to stand on. Randy Newman’s Marriage Story work is great too, it’s just that it doesn’t really fit the film. And it’s always tempting to say the Williams Star Wars score.
What will win: Edgy Clown.
Fun fact: Cousins Randy and Thomas Newman are competing against each other in this category (Marriage Story and 1917, respectively). They’ve done this a lot, yet neither of them has won in this category (Randy has 2 wins for song, however).
Best Production Design
The nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
The surprises: we’re at the point with these categories where nobody’s really surprised at anything because nobody was making any legit predictions.
The snubs: The Lighthouse. That movie rules and the titular location is fantastically assembled. Some people will tell you that Edgy Clown’s depiction of societal decay deserves a nod. These people are fools.
What should win: It comes down to Parasite, and the excellent main house set, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s brilliant recreation of 1969 Los Angeles. I’m saying Hollywood, because Parasite’s set never has a moment in the spotlight quite this brilliant:
What will win: Hollywood. That’s gonna be pretty hard to ignore.
Fun fact: I have seen Once Upon a Time in Hollywood all the way through twice. I have watched the above scene… more than that. It’s basically my favorite scene in any movie ever this year.
Best Costume Design
The nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The surprises: see this section above
The snubs: People are pissed that Dolemite is My Name missed in this category. This is another one I haven’t seen yet, but a quick glance at the costumes shows that it should’ve gotten in over Edgy Clown.
What should win: Once Upon a Time. The period detail combined with the instantly iconic Cliff Booth Hawaiian shirt puts it over the top.
What will win: Hollywood or Little Women, likely the former. The Academy hates women.
And so we come to the end of this preview. The Oscars are early this year, on Sunday, February 9th. I imagine things will be totally chill until then.
The Movie Files 