HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH oh MAN I cannot believe I decided to write this. Oh man. Ok. Upcoming Oscars. Let’s see. Where to start? I guess by clarifying some things. The 2021 Oscars are scheduled for April 25th, with nominations being announced March 15th and the eligibility window for film releases ends on February 28th. In a normal world, They’d probably be this upcoming Sunday. But, as we all know, we are not living in a normal world: Parasite’s win last year was so seismic that they just decided to stop making movies, and the Oscars had to adjust accordingly. Or something.
Anyway, they’re happening. Nobody has any idea what’s going on. Half of the contending movies are uninteresting, the other half are unavailable to the general public. In some ways, it does kind of feel like we’re living in a normal world. So I figured I’d try to do the Oscar preview again. Last season I covered 33 movies, 20 of which were nominated for at least one Oscar. The majority of the misses came in the latter portion of the preview, indicating stuff that were probably longshots to begin with. Some notable predictions, keeping in mind that this was in September, before we had any sense of how the season was shaping up–
The Two Popes was the biggest BP contender: This did not hit. Got in for actor, though.
Parasite was something to watch: A bit, yeah!
Cats was legit: Not so much.
On Jojo Rabbit- “The consensus emerging is that it contains a great use of a David Bowie song”: OH GOD. Oh god. This is genuinely worse than the last one. Thanks, movie, for ruining that song for me.
“I left at least one massive contender off that nobody sees coming”: Looks like… no, actually? I included all nine eventual BP nominees. I only missed one acting nominee (Richard Jewell) and one screenplay nominee (Knives Out). The only multi-nominees I missed were Honeyland (with 2) and, uh… Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker? Three Oscar nominations? That doesn’t sound right. I’m assuming that’s a mistake.
So now, much closer to the actual awards, and with some relevant precursor nominations already announced, hopefully this’ll be pretty accurate. Let’s dive in–
Tier 1- Best Picture Potpourri
The group of films that are in the conversation for Best Picture nominations numbers 13 entries. These are those films:
Nomadland– dir. Chloe Zhao
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Frances McDormand), Best Supporting Actor (David Strathairn), Best Cinematography. A lot. Pretty much everything.
Right now Best Picture looks like a two horse race, with Nomadland seeming like a slight favorite. It won the Golden Lion at Venice, which has somehow become a super relevant indicator of awards success, and more importantly the TIFF people’s choice award, which has been a super relevant indicator of awards success. This is the one to beat, although it still has one major hurdle to clear– it’s not clear how much the public is gonna like it. Nomadland hits VOD and Hulu on February 26th, which will be the first time it can be seen by people who didn’t buy a ticket to a virtual film festival or risk going to a theater. Granted, the non-critic people who have done those things seem to be head over heels for it, but that doesn’t necessarily reflect how it’ll play with a more casual subset of the moviegoing community. Also, public reaction isn’t necessarily required for Academy reaction (how many people knew Shape of Water as anything other than the fishman sex movie?).
The Trial of the Chicago 7– dir. Aaron Sorkin
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen), maybe a handful of other acting nods depending on how much they like it.
And here’s the other half of Best Picture. Sorkin’s latest is undeniably Oscar bait: a dozen middle-to-big-name actors, historical basis, and, most importantly, politically uninflammatory. Chicago 7 treads much of the same ground as Da 5 Bloods and, as I understand the conceit of Judas and the Black Messiah, that film as well, but it manages to do so while ultimately embodying a message of timidity and unearned institutional respect. It positions itself as a Movie of the Moment while not actually making any sort of controversial stand that would earn it this title. Think Green Book, although not nearly as politically disastrous as that film. As well as a lot better– the film is well-made, entertaining, and very well-acted. There would be a lot worse movies to have won Best Picture, and I’m not saying it’s entirely morally worthless. But it would be the wrong winner for this moment in time. Which is exactly why it feels like it’ll win.
Minari– dir. Lee Isaac Chung
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Steven Yeun), Best Supporting Actor (Youn Yuh-jung)
Sundance favorite Minari feels like it’s been riding a wave of hype from way beyond when Oscar hits usually debut, which is because it is. In a normal year, I doubt Minari has the staying power post-Sundance it does, but instead no new movies were released for months, everyone lost their sense of time, and the Minari buzz coasted to Oscar season in suspended animation. I haven’t yet seen the film, debuting on VOD later this month, but it presents some absolutely massive possibilities for my personal taste: if Steven Yeun’s acclaimed performance nets a nod, I believe he would become the first person to appear on I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson to be nominated for an Oscar. And if Youn Yuh-jung gets in, I’m pretty much positive she’d be the first regular Hong Sang-soo collaborator with an Oscar nod (appearing in Hill of Freedom, In Another Country, Ha Ha Ha, List, and Right Now, Wrong Then). For those of us with this very peculiar intersection of interests, this is a massive moment. Anyway, I don’t know exactly what I was talking about. Minari. Could do well.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom– dir. George C. Wolfe
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Chadwick Boseman), Best Actress (Viola Davis), Best Supporting Actor (Glynn Turman), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Production Design, etc. This one could lead in nominations I think.
The loss of Chadwick Boseman still doesn’t feel real. He was an eternally vital talent whose stardom felt like it was just taking off. I remember watching the trailer for Da 5 Bloods and getting excited about him getting roles this complex and interesting. It’s heartbreaking. It feels callous to pivot right into “he feels like a lock for a posthumous Oscar win”. He is, probably the only acting winner who can be seen as a shoo-in right now, but it really feels insignificant. From the critical consensus, it feels like he would’ve been even without the Oscars’ predilection for posthumous awards, because of course he would’ve.
By the nature of the exercise, I have to talk about the rest of the film– Davis seems like she’s in a race with Carey Mulligan for Best Actress, with Frances McDormand on the outside but with a solid shot. The film feels like an easy sell in the below-the-line categories, and Netflix will push it hard in all likelihood.
Da 5 Bloods– dir. Spike Lee
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Delroy Lindo), Best Supporting Actor (Chadwick Boseman), Best Cinematography, Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Score
Lindo is the one to watch here– he dominated the early hype of the film upon release, looking like a lock for an actor nod, but has missed some critical precursors and isn’t exactly a sure thing at this point. Which is a shame. He delivered maybe the best performance of the year, and has been phenomenal in overlooked roles for decades. I also have a bad feeling about the film itself. I feel like, despite the fact that it looks good for BP, it has the making of something that could get snubbed on nomination day and upset everyone. Which, again, would be a shame. It’s one of the year’s best, and a singular vision in a year that needs them. Maybe the safest bet here is, again, Boseman, whose role as a prematurely killed Vietnam squad leader has taken on an eerie layer of resonance since his death.
Sound of Metal– dir. Darius Marder
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Actor (Riz Ahmed), Best Supporting Actor (Paul Raci), Best Sound
Here’s my favorite. So far, of the movies this year that look like legit Oscar players, this is the one I’m pulling for the most. Unfortunately, it does look like a bit of an underdog. It’s not exactly the kind of thing they usually go for (it’s much better ayyyy). The story of a drummer who finds out he’s going deaf, it’s quietly devastating beyond the obvious literal sense. Ahmed has done well enough so far that I’m feeling pretty good about his chances at a well-deserved nomination. And it’s starting to look like it’ll get in for Picture, too, even if it has no chance in hell of winning. My chief concern here is Paul Raci, whose supporting turn as the head of a deaf community brought me nearly to tears multiple times and gave me the investment in awards season I always hate having. He’s missed the big precursors so far, which is obviously not a good sign. He’s still a possibility, I guess, but things are looking bleak.
Promising Young Woman– dir. Emerald Fennell
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Carey Mulligan), Best Original Screenplay
The range of reactions to this one has been interesting. It could still miss BP, it could still be a major enough contender to score a Director nod. The praise for Mulligan has been universal, though, and right now if I were betting on it (hmmmm… maybe I should do that) I think I would take her as the Best Actress winner. Outside of her, however, there’s uncertainty. I’m projecting it to make the BP lineup, which feels wild– it was highly anticipated at Sundance, and received kind of a tepid reaction before exploding in the fall. If nothing else, this is one of the weirdest narratives of the season.
One Night in Miami– dir. Regina King
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor (Leslie Odom Jr., Eli Goree), Best Actor (Kingsley Ben-Adir)
There’s a subset of people who really like this one’s chances. I’ve seen some people say it could win the whole thing. I think that it will not. It’s probably a BP nomination lock, and it’s starting to look like Odom is a sure thing to get in. And I guess there’s a world where this really plays– Goree gets in and gives it multiple Supporting Actor nominations, and King gets in for Director. But I feel like a more realistic best case scenario includes BP/Odom plus a lead actor nod for Ben-Adir’s terrific work as Malcolm X, although I’m struggling to see where he gets in. Side note– I know I’ve made it clear that I’m all in on Paul Raci, but I wouldn’t be upset about Odom pulling off the supporting actor win. He’s just a fantastic performer, and he steals this movie with a climactic performance of Sam Cooke’s “A Change is Gonna Come” that completely brings down the house with an energy that brings the film to a new level.
The Father– dir. Florian Zeller
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Anthony Hopkins), Best Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman)
As many have pointed out, this movie may not actually exist. Look at the poster–
Psy-op. But that hasn’t stopped the Oscars in the past, and if you think goddamn Anthony Hopkins is missing a nod for a movie in which he plays a man with dementia, you are mistaken.
Mank– dir. David Fincher
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Gary Oldman), Best Supporting Actress (Amanda Seyfried), Best Cinematography, Best Score, Best Screenplay (I think original, but like… the Kael article was a presence here, was it not?)
MANK! A-AAAAAA! It’s underwhelming! (Do doo doo do). Mank is unfortunately Oscar-bait-y for the great David Fincher, which means it will undeniably have more success than any of his many masterpieces (I’ll always remember you, Gone Girl, even if the HOLLYWOOD ELITE won’t). It’s a movie about moviemaking that climaxes with a blatant appeal to the Sanctity of the Academy as part of a larger kneecapping of maybe the greatest director in American history. It’s not great. It’s worth noting that all ravaging aside, I did kinda like Mank. I thought the digital B&W really worked, which is good because it is going to win for Cinematography. I was down for the direction Oldman went in with his lead performance, which is good because it’ll soften the pain of him inevitably knocking Lindo out of lead actor. Seyfried is obviously tremendous, although she seems to have lost her frontrunner status in Supporting Actress with a shocking SAG miss. Anyway, justice for Orson Welles.
Judas and the Black Messiah– dir. Shaka King
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Actor (Lakeith Stanfield), Best Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya), Best Supporting Actress (Dominique Fishback)
This drops on HBO Max tomorrow, and you better believe I will be watching it the day of. This isn’t a lock for BP, but it could absolutely change that if the public reaction mirrors the critical reaction. Kaluuya, because there apparently is some benevolence in the world, might be the favorite to win Supporting Actor and win his first Oscar. This, of course, should be the second or third win for one of the most consistently incredible actors of the current generation– his Get Out role or DDL in Phantom Thread should’ve taken best actor in 2017, and in my mind there’s no denying that his turn in Widows in 2018 was the best male supporting performance of that year (he was not nominated). Stanfield is also overdue for this kind of recognition after being reliably great in an astonishing variety of roles over the last few years. However, this will probably get shut out in favor of the movie that completely abandons the Black Panthers after they’re no longer convenient for the plot (thought you were out of the woods for criticism, Sorkin?)
News of the World– dir. Paul Greengrass
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Actor (Tom Hanks), Best Supporting Actress (Helena Zengel)
I have seen exactly zero rapturous praise or reactions above “yeah this is basically fine” for News of the World, a movie that will receive 5+ Academy Award nominations at a bare minimum. Granted, I may not be looking super hard, but it doesn’t seem like this movie has inspired enough passion in people to inspire the passion in me to expend energy on that. I feel confident in saying that it’ll grab a BP slot, although Hanks probably misses (as he did for his last Greengrass collaboration, Captain Phillips). I think that the biggest lock here might be 12-year-old Helena Zengel. Zero people will remember this in two (2) calendar years.
Soul– dir. Pete Docter
Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Animated Feature, Best Original Score
This was always kinda the longshot of the BP group, and it hasn’t had the precursor success it would’ve needed to break into the conversation. I almost moved it down a tier. But it’s a weird year, and Soul has been the most acclaimed Pixar since Inside Out. It could happen.
More importantly, Trent Reznor is absolutely gonna win an Oscar for a Pixar movie, which is just hilarious to me.
Tier 2- Acting!
Movies that almost certainly won’t be in the BP conversation, but feel like they’ll get in for acting categories, or screenplays or techs. Don’t know why I called it “Acting!”, actually. Just felt snappy. I stand by it.
Hillbilly Elegy– dir. Ron Howard
Awards contending for: Best Actress (Amy Adams), Best Supporting Actress (Glenn Close), Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Beyond the initial mass clowning and critical revulsion on this one, it’s managed to worm its way back into the two acting categories everyone thought it’d win. Close especially seems like she has a shot at winning. I guess this could still get in for BP if the Academy likes it enough. Critical love isn’t always necessary for that kind of success. The best comparison I can think of is Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, although for comparison that earned a (very bad!) Rotten Tomatoes score of 46, while this boasts an abysmal 26. It’s an uphill climb.
On the Rocks– dir. Sofia Coppola
Awards contending for: Best Supporting Actor (Bill Murray), Best Original Screenplay
I would like it on the record that On the Rocks is delightful, far better than a number of movies certain to land Best Picture nominations, and featuring a totally stunning lead performance from Rashida Jones that has for some reason completely evaded any year-end-best-of conversation. I guess I’ll settle for the above two major nominations, which it seems like it’ll get. Murray is great, perfect late-career performance that the Oscars tend to go for.
Another Round– dir. Thomas Vinterberg
Awards contending for: Best International Film, Best Actor (Mads Mikkelsen)
Here’s another favorite. This feels like a lock for International Film, but the Actor nod might be wishful thinking on my part at this point. Mikkelsen gives one of the year’s best performances, and it seems like he’s being boxed out of a crowded category. Another Round‘s best case scenario is something like Pain and Glory got last year, with International and Actor nods, and I’d love to see it, but I’m not sure how likely it is.
The Life Ahead– dir. Edoardo Ponti
Awards contending for: Best International Film, Best Actress (Sophia Loren)
This film’s entire Oscar narrative can be summed up as follows: Yup. Sophia Loren.
Ammonite– dir. Francis Lee
Awards contending for: Best Actress (Kate Winslet), Best Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan)
Ammonite fell off after a reserved critical response, and as such it’s gone from potential BP/Acting winner to potential Acting nominee. Could also get in for some techs, Score, Cinematography, and Costume Design all feel like possibilities.
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm– dir. Jason Woliner
Awards contending for: Best Supporting Actress (Maria Bakalova), Best Original Song (“Wuhan Flu”)
This deserves to win both of these, and it stands a legitimate outside chance at getting both nods. If that comes to pass, it will bring a total of three Oscar nominations to the Borat franchise, which is a real thing I just typed.
Pieces of a Woman– dir. Kornel Mundruczo
Awards contending for: Best Actress (Vanessa Kirby)
Kirby is guaranteed a nod for this movie, and for like a month there it looked like she might be the favorite. She’s fallen off a bit in that regard, but she looks like she’ll pretty much coast to inclusion at least. Nothing else of any real importance here.
Tier 3- Hell if I Know
Two early 2021 releases with negative receptions that could nonetheless break really favorably. I don’t think either of these will get in for BP, but they very well may get in for other things, and hey, you never know. Anyway–
The Little Things– dir. John Lee Hancock
Awards contending for: Best Supporting Actor (Jared Leto), Best Original Score
Cormac McCarthy’s Blood Meridian, possibly the greatest novel ever written, closes with the following lines, referring to undeniably the greatest villain ever written–
“He never sleeps. He says that he will never die. He dances in light and shadow and he is a great favorite. He never sleeps, the judge. He is dancing, dancing. He says that he will never die.”
That’s how I feel about Jared Leto.
Malcolm and Marie– dir. Sam Levinson
Awards contending for: Anything ranging from “Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (John David Washington), Best Actress (Zendaya), Best Cinematography, Best Original Screenplay” to “The razzie for worst picture. Possibly both?
I don’t want to get into this one. The important thing to know is that some people love it, some people hate it, and everyone is very angry about it. I have no doubt that when I inevitably watch it, I will fall into one of these camps. It has ignited comparisons to John Cassavetes that I guarantee you it does not earn, and a subsequent discourse around this. Anyway stream Minnie and Moskowitz.
Tier 4- Odds, Ends, and Documentaries
Some stuff that could fill in the techs/below the line awards. Plus, of course, docs. Buncha docs.
Welcome to Chechnya– dir. David France
Awards contending for: Best Documentary, Best Visual Effects
Here’s a weird one. This was shortlisted for both awards, and could ultimately pull a similar achievement to Honeyland last year by getting multiple nods as a documentary. I’m not missing that again. I’ve learned my lesson.
Tenet– dir. Christopher Nolan
Awards contending for: Probably, like, sound and editing and VFX and stuff like that
Tenet holds the distinction of being the only movie released in 2020. Therefore you’d think it’d be doing a lot better, huh?
Time– dir. Garrett Bradley
Awards contending for: Best Documentary
This is the most acclaimed doc of the year, currently the favorite to win the award. However, based on the utterly hilarious history of the Best Documentary category in recent years, those exact qualities make me 100% certain it will not be nominated. See: Won’t You Be My Neighbor and Apollo 11.
Other Docs
Awards contending for: Best animated short, oddly
Probably not a lot to write about the various other documentaries that are contending for slots. So I’m just going to list a few:
Dick Johnson is Dead
Collective
Gunda
Boys State
MLK/FBI
All In: The Fight For Democracy (I haven’t heard the buzz around this that I have for the others, but come on. Something with that title is gonna get in.)
Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)– dir. Cathy Yan
Awards contending for: Best Makeup and Hair, Best Visual Effects
A rare 2020 blockbuster, this is obviously gonna contend for VFX, and was also shortlisted for Makeup and Hair. I could’ve put the “awards contending for” section twice.
The Midnight Sky– dir. George Clooney
Awards contending for: all I have at this point for the blurbs is just to list the stuff it was shortlisted for, so I’m cutting this section effective immediately.
The Midnight Sky was shortlisted for Best Score and Best Visual Effects. Ah. So much better to do it like this. Unfortunately, I think I am out of movies. That’s for the best, I think.
Anyway, in conclusion, the Oscars are coming. God, there’s two more whole months of this.
I close by asking you to watch Sound of Metal, please. Also my favorite movie of 2020, David Byrne’s American Utopia, which I could not find a place for here because it’s not exactly the textbook definition of a “movie”. WHERE’S MY “BEST FILMED BROADWAY PRODUCTION” CATEGORY, AMPAS? Lmao it would still lose that. Hamilton and such. The Oscars are the worst, everyone. I eagerly await their arrival.
The Movie Files 