Oscars Preview: What Will Win, What Should Win, and What I Still Haven’t Watched Out of Unwillingness to Pay $20 to Watch News of the World in My Living Room

We stand at the precipice of the 93rd Academy Awards, a fittingly banal yet oddly compelling installment of a largely irrelevant yet oddly compelling awards show. These awards come at the conclusion of the Year When Movies Died, a horrifying stain on cinematic history that the stupid Academy of stupid Motion Picture Arts and Sciences dragged out for two impenetrably stupid months longer than usual so that they could film and edit the entirety of The Father in between the nominations and awards.

Things are grim in the world of film awards. First Cow was predictably yet heartbreakingly shafted. Expert prognosticators were left holding their visions of an America gripped by MankMania in their hands after David Fincher’s latest came and went without fanfare. The film was then bestowed 10 Oscar nominations, but alas, the ears of the nation had already turned away. Despite their best efforts, the show’s producers were unable to avoid setting another record for consecutive years without Bob Hope hosting. Nomadland, a perfectly good movie, is the most unstoppable lock to win Best Picture in quite some time, which will bring the entire enterprise to a close marked by a chorus of a million awed “yeah, ok”s. The film’s director, Chloe Zhao, will then go on to direct a Marvel movie, one of which is due to win 7 of these, including Best Picture, in at most three years.

This is all coming, of course, a year after Parasite‘s big win, a moment that renewed my faith in both the Oscars and the film industry as a whole. For one brief second, it felt like there was some hope to be had in breaking free from Hollywood’s total immersion in its own ass, in pushing people’s boundaries in their consumption of art. Then the pandemic happened, the studios decided that this was their big chance to kill movie theaters once and for all, and we were left with a Best Picture crop that, despite some really great films and no flat-out bad ones, manages to feel completely unremarkable. This is only partially a failure caused by the pandemic, to be clear, watching these films at home isn’t projecting any sort of lack of creativity onto them that isn’t actually there. I should’ve seen it coming. It’s useless to have hope in these sorts of things, it’s always one step forward and two steps back. Just look at a few years ago– The Shape of Water winning was a landmark moment for fish-human love advocates across the world, and it was followed up by Green Book, a movie that has all of zero scenes of fish-human intercourse, and is also bad. That’s what’s so uninteresting about this year: Nomadland inevitably winning won’t bring the same glee as Parasite, or even draw the same revulsion as Green Book. And it certainly won’t be nearly as hilarious as The Shape of Water, which is still useful as joke fodder over three years later. And, come Sunday night, it will happen, and the gilded list of films designated immortal by an arbitrary jury will grow by one, and we will forget about almost everything else nominated. And goddammit, I will be watching. After everything we’ve all been through in the last year, having something as dependable as whining about the Oscars to fall back on is unspeakably comforting. Having an exercise as futile and useless as scientifically parsing the winners in advance to rely on is a light in darkness. Is this insane? Is this hopeless Stockholm Syndrome level devotion to an actively harmful institution? You bet it is. In fact, I think I would advise anyone not as terminally sunk into it as I am to break free while you can. Apichatpong Weerasethakul’s 2010 masterpiece Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives is available to rent for just $3.99 on itunes. There is nothing stopping you from watching it while the Oscars are happening. There is no rule against this. But for my fellow obsessives, those of us who are going to let these things matter to us no matter how much we know they’re worthless, the Oscars loom. Awards will be given out, and the process of reacting way too much to their eventual results is already underway. Let’s dive in–

Best Picture

Nomadland' Scores Seven Nominations From Chicago Film Critics - Variety

The nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

What will win: If you were thinking of putting money on this award, and you decided to bet on something other than Nomadland, you would genuinely be better off just setting that money on fire. That way, at least you don’t have any anticipation or false hope, and you end up with the same result.

What should win: Well, let’s see. The best movie of the year is David Byrne’s American Utopia, which is a filmed production of a Broadway concert and as such is probably ineligible. The best narrative film of the year is First Cow, but let’s be real here, the Academy is just not going to go for a Kelly Reichardt movie, with this or probably any award. The second best narrative film of the year is I’m Thinking of Ending Things, and ditto that for Charlie Kaufman. The best movie that could’ve conceivably been nominated is Da 5 Bloods, which was not nominated, because the Academy hates Spike Lee more than either Reichardt or Kaufman, and he’s actually won one of these. The best nominated film is either Minari or Sound of Metal. I guess Minari should probably win. Great movie. But, obviously, would not have been my very first choice.

Of note: With Minari (Steven Yeun) and Promising Young Woman (Sam Richardson) both nominated, 20% of this year’s Best Picture lineup consists of films featuring cast members of I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson, although Robinson himself is not in any of the nominees. Next year.

Best Director

Nomadland' Review: A Tale of Roaming and Yearning - WSJ

The nominees: Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman, David Fincher – Mank, Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round, Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Who will win: This is Zhao’s award for the same reasons BP is Nomadland‘s. Awards bodies simply can’t seem to get enough of the movie. And while I would’ve made a different pick (see below), I can’t deny that Zhao will be a really great winner here. The movie is very good, yeah, but also women haven’t won this award nearly enough throughout the course of its history, nor have Asians. To give it to an Asian woman for a good movie is something I can’t possibly complain about.

Who should win: In a perfect world, a world where either Hong Sang-soo or Claire Denis has won this in every one of the last twenty years, I would not give this to Zhao. In that scenario, it would have to be Reichardt for First Cow (note: I still haven’t been able to see The Woman Who Ran. It could still be Hong). Of the nominees, though, it gets interesting. Minari is, as I’ve established, outstanding, and I would love to give it to Chung, but I actually think I’m going Vinterberg here. He got in on what I like to call the Cold War nomination, a phenomenon where slot five has gone to a foreign language film the Academy likes a lot for no discernible reason. Another Round is outstanding, and felt like one of the most completely directed films of the year as well. The film feels forceful in Vinterberg’s choices and style, carrying you along on the charisma and vigor its direction imbues it with. Would also be funny to go with Fincher for his most completely nothing movie.

Of note: Only one of these nominees gave us Mads Mikkelsen dancing.

Best Actor

Netflix's Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Reactions Are In, And Chadwick Boseman Is Earning Absolute Raves - CINEMABLEND

The nominees: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari

Who will win: You know, Boseman has been a lock to win here for so long that it feels automatic, but I can’t bring myself to go to 100% with the adulation Hopkins has been getting. I think this’ll still be Boseman, but I’d watch out for the film sensation of awards season… uh… The Father.

Who should win: This is a super strong category. Boseman, if indeed he wins, will deserve it for reasons that have nothing to do with his tragic death, the performance is just that good. I’ll watch The Father tomorrow, but I imagine Hopkins is just ridiculously great. Oldman is fine, don’t know what he’s doing here though. Of the nominees, Yeun or Ahmed should win in my opinion. I’m saying Ahmed. It’s a masterpiece of a performance– playing someone losing their hearing is one thing, but to do it in a way that so evades everything usually showy about portraying a disability is astounding. This isn’t a role demanding plaudits, it’s just a beautiful, sad, perfect piece of acting. All of that being said, this category is rendered completely invalid by the exclusion of Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods, the single best performance in anything this year, across any category. Also would’ve liked to see Mikkelsen get in for Another Round. The dancing!

Of note: I already used my I Think You Should Leave note for Yeun, huh? Crap. Ok, let’s see. Gary Oldman became the first ever person nominated for playing Mank. I guess that’s interesting. Would be great if Mank became one of those characters who was just an inexplicable Oscar magnet, like the joker. I’m rolling on saying “Mank” now, this is gonna get out of hand. I liked the part in Mank where Josef von Sternberg showed up for like three seconds just so there could be a line about how he was Josef von Sternberg so you know that Fincher knows who Josef von Sternberg is. Calm down, man, we’ve all seen Shanghai Express. Would’ve been amazing if he had just had Mank launch into a bunch of terrible von Sternberg puns just to really sell this to the film nerds in the audience. Like just an awful series of “Ah, Dishonored to meet you, wink wink nudge nudge” and stuff like that. I think I would’ve actively campaigned for it for Best Picture.

Best Actress

Hail, Caesar! (2016) – Creative Criticism

The nominees: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Who will win: Ahahahahaha so yeah about that. This could literally go any one of four ways. Davis, Day, McDormand, and Mulligan have all won exactly one of the four major precursors (poor Vanessa Kirby). Nobody has any sort of visible advantage over any of the others (again, excluding Kirby). If I had to guess, I think I’d say Mulligan. Just feels like the performance they’d go for. But I still can’t shake the thought that Davis has to win this. But also they love Nomadland, maybe the hype crosses into this category and McDormand wins it. And Andra Day definitely does keep looming in my mind as a legitimate threat, despite the fact that she felt like the fifth one in here. I don’t know. Gun to my head, Mulligan, but I would not feel remotely confident about it.

Who should win: Jessie Buckley in I’m Thinking of Ending Things can still take this in the write-ins. There’s too much division. It’s anyone’s game. The right thing can still be done. In case that doesn’t pan out and it goes to one of the nominees, it’d probably be Davis in my opinion. Ma Rainey as a movie is pretty much fine, but as an acting showcase it’s the best thing I’ve seen all year. Mulligan would also be a very good winner. She’s been uniformly great in films that are beneath her for a decade now, and was unambiguously so in a film I was otherwise very split on in Promising Young Woman.

Of note: A Mulligan win would, I believe, be the first by an actor for a performance featuring a scene of singing Paris Hilton in a pharmacy. A similar scene was left on the cutting room floor of Olivia de Havilland in The Heiress, opening the door for Mulligan to make some history.

Ok I used The Heiress there completely at random and the more I’m thinking about it the more similarities I’m finding between The Heiress and Promising Young Woman. Heiress is better though. Watch The Heiress, everyone.

Best Supporting Actor

Daniel Kaluuya doesn't remember filming 'Judas and the Black Messiah' scene

The nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami…, Paul Raci, Sound of Metal, Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Who will win: Kaluuya. And he’ll deserve it. He fully embodies Fred Hampton. He’s impossible to take your eyes off of whenever he’s on screen. And he cements himself as possibly the best actor currently working. My only quibble, and I’ll say a bit more on this in a minute, is that it’s not really a true supporting performance.

Who should win: A rare one in that my two favorite entries in this category this year are nominated. Kaluuya, as I already said, is unreal, but I think I’d call Paul Raci in Sound of Metal my favorite performance of the year, or at least second to Delroy Lindo. His last scene in the film brought me this close to sobbing, and I can’t say that about anyone else this year. Also, the only one in this category who actually gives a supporting performance as opposed to a prominent ensemble member or a straight up lead role that benefitted by the most baffling successful attempt at category fraud I’ve ever seen (look, Stanfield is great in Judas but how in the world is Jesse Plemons now apparently the lead in that movie?).

Of note: I’d like to use this section to highlight the following actual supporting actor performances of 2020 that I feel are deserving of some recognition:

David Thewlis, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Alan Kim, Minari
Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Colman Domingo, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Toby Jones, First Cow
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
Arliss Howard, Mank (the best part of this movie, you cannot convince me otherwise)

Best Supporting Actress

Minari' Actress Yuh-Jung Youn: 'Stressful' to Be Nominated at Oscars

The nominees: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Who will win: It’s starting to look like this is Youn’s, although it’s definitely not a sure thing. This could finally be Close’s year (if it ever will be). I definitely think that you can’t count Bakalova out yet. Seyfried was a big frontrunner for a while but has seemingly disappeared, I have to wonder if that was simply a tactical retreat in preparation for a late strike. I’m very tired.

Who should win: Youn or Bakalova, probably Youn. As the foul-mouthed grandmother in Minari, she makes the film, as well as becomes the first Hong Sang-soo regular to receive an Oscar nomination, beginning the path to Kim Min-hee dominating this category every year for the foreseeable future, as she should. Would also be extremely funny if Colman beat Close again. This is the second time I’ve talked about Hong Sang-soo in this post, which I think is interesting.

Of note: If Seyfried manages to pull this off, this would be the second straight year where this award has gone to a Twin Peaks: The Return cast member.

Best Original Screenplay

Review: 'Promising Young Woman' falters due to predictability

The nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Who will win: Promising Young Woman. So funny to me that Trial of the Chicago 7, a movie literally designed to win this award in particular, is not going to win.

Who should win: Judas, I think. I’ve talked about Sound of Metal and Minari in this post a lot, but I think writing-wise, Judas beats both of them. Like I said, I was split on Promising Young Woman. There was a lot of stuff I liked about it, but I did not think that the writing was one of these. Odd call I think. Not a ton to say about this one. It’s a screenplay one. Debated even doing it.

Of note: Jeremy Strong and his egg in Trial of the Chicago 7 is of note I think. Haven’t talked about that movie a lot. This might be my only chance.

The 'Trial of the Chicago 7' Character Rankings - The Ringer

Best Adapted Screenplay

It's an utter myth': how Nomadland exposes the cult of the western | Nomadland | The Guardian

The nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami…, The White Tiger

Who will win: Nomadland. You know the drill by now.

Who should win: Borat. I mean, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, obviously, but of the nominees it has to be Borat. Don’t care how much of it was improvised. Perfect writing.

Of note: One Night in Miami… got completely killed on nominations in a way I definitely wasn’t expecting. I’m pretty much fine with it just getting in for Odom, screenplay, and song (I guess, the day I start paying attention to the songs is not a day that will come willingly), but I do want to plug Odom singing A Change is Gonna Come to close out the film, which is a completely phenomenal scene.

Best Cinematography

Nomadland': Chloé Zhao and crew reveal how they made one of the year's best films - CNN Style

The nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

What will win: Take a wild guess.

What should win: Probably Nomadland. Above anything else, it looks unbelievable. Also really loved how Judas and the Black Messiah looked, glad it got in. I liked Mank‘s weird anachronistic black-and-white digital thing too, I know that was contentious but I felt it worked well. King of Digital David Fincher stays winning. Best cinematography of the year is either First Cow or Da 5 Bloods though.

Of note: Did you know that Mank was shot in black and white because it’s set in the 1940s, and most films in the 1940s were in black and white? Director David Fincher did this an homage. Also Orson Welles never surpassed Citizen Kane, we must always remember that. He was nothing without the studio system behind him. The studio system is good. It is nurturing. It is the glue that keeps the film industry, and society as a whole, together. Welles flew too close to the sun and never made another film agai- no what are you doing don’t look up The Lady From Shanghai no please just please accept the narrative that he peaked with Kane oh no oh God

Best Original Score

Soul' Review: Another Masterpiece From the Minds Behind 'Inside Out' - Variety

The nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul

Who will win: Trent Reznor is about to receive an Oscar for his work on a Pixar movie. The entire year in movies will be worth it for this fact.

Who should win: Like I said, I can’t complain about Reznor taking it for Soul, especially because it is a great score. This is also the only recognition Da 5 Bloods got, and the ever-brilliant Terence Blanchard deserves more recognition. However, for the second straight year, the best score comes courtesy of Emile Mosseri, who might be my favorite working film composer not named Angelo Badalamenti. His work on Minari is idiosyncratic and wonderful in a way that echoes his stunning soundscape for last year’s The Last Black Man in San Francisco, an utterly brilliant piece of work that I’m thrilled was nominated.

Of note: Trent Reznor and musical partner Atticus Ross received two of the five nods this year, for Soul and Mank. Their score for the former is, like I said, going to win, but their work on the latter is equally intricate and fascinating, making that film far more interesting than it could’ve been. Anyway, my notable fact here is once again that the guy who wrote Closer not only did the score for a Pixar movie, but did it so well that he’s gonna win an Oscar for it. It’s just too funny to me.

These have been all the categories I can speak remotely intelligently on, and even a few on which I can’t. I can give you my strongest guarantee that everything I have said in here will turn out correct. Enjoy the Oscars, everyone. Or, again, Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives, if you want the exact opposite experience in both vibes and quality.

92nd Academy Awards: The Best Picture Nominees, Ranked

We’re here. Today, February 9th, is the day of the 92nd Academy Awards, which is always the best day of the year… until they start announcing the winners. But it’s always fun, in the run-up to the awards, to hope that the movie you’re rooting for has a chance. As I did last year, I watched all the nominees for Best Picture prior to the ceremony for the sake of completion. Having watched some bona fide masterpieces and sat through some utter garbage, I feel as though the disparity between potential victors is vast, enough that I feel the need to categorize the nominees into sections to illustrate the quality gap. But remember, whatever happens, it’s almost guaranteed to be a huge disappointment. So sit back, relax, and get furious at the outcome of the show.

The Nominees

Unforgivable Trash

This category may strike you as particularly harsh, but the films that inhabit it are fully deserving of this dubious honor. In a year with such tremendous works of art at the top of this category, it’s sad and yet poetic that there’s this level of garbage littering the bottom of the barrel. Anyway, here’s two movies that everyone loves!

9- Joker (dir. Todd Phillips)

BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEECCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. Joker has to be the worst movie to ever amass this number of Oscar nominations. With 11 nods handed to this verifiable piece of trash, the success of Joker signals an unmistakable death knell for the film industry, one where intentionally derivative faux-inflammatory trash earns double digit Oscar nomination totals and a billion dollars at the box office while original masterpieces like Uncut Gems and Us get shut out. Joker represents everything wrong with movies today. It pretends as if it has some grand message about society, that it has an actual knowledge of cinematic history, that it’s above its superhero movie brethren. It follows none of this criteria. There’s no message here. Joker doesn’t have the guts to take a side or actually say anything meaningful, it simply tricks its audience into thinking it does by using dark cinematography, a foreboding score, an R rating, and a protest movement name (“Kill the Rich”) that was thought through for 3 seconds. Or maybe that’s giving it too much credit. Joker‘s cinematic knowledge is that it’s seen Taxi Driver like 10 times and didn’t understand it at all. It gleefully rips from that superior film in embarrassing fashion, even making a hamfisted and cringe-inducing nod to the “You talkin’ to me?” scene. It also drags Brian De Palma’s Blow Out into it via a theater marquee at the end, which depresses me to no end as not one, but two perfect films are now implicated in this train wreck. Worst of all, it pretends to be above its fellow superhero movies, yet never misses a chance to shoehorn in an unnecessary bit of fan service lore. A dumpster fire.

8- Jojo Rabbit (dir. Taika Waititi)

Oh, man. I may have put this above Joker, but it could really go either way. I’ve never seen a movie, not Green Book, not Crash, that has made me feel quite as gross as Jojo Rabbit. It’s technically fine, and Waititi is a very funny person, but that’s the problem. Waititi’s typical goofiness is not a fit for the material, especially as it starts descending into more serious territory. Jojo Rabbit takes a horrifying view of the atrocities at its center, which is that the perpetrators were victims as well. Sam Rockwell’s gay nazi is shown to be a sympathetic character because he’s gay and he helps Jojo avoid nazi persecution in one scene, but he’s still a nazi, one who enthusiastically and effectively serves a cause that seeks to destroy him and people like him. There is no possible sympathy for this character. Nor is there any for the German people who sat and watched the nazis take over, who the movie would like you to believe are the ones who truly suffered here. There’s a scene towards the end where “innocent” German citizens are herded into a losing battle, and you almost feel sorry for them. But it’s hard not to remember that these are people who watched Hitler rise to power and cheered him on. Then there’s the issue of the Jewish character (singular). Thomasin McKenzie’s Elsa, a Jewish girl who Jojo’s mother is hiding, is used strictly as a tool for Jojo to better himself as a person. She endures endless abuse at his hands, and just takes it, in the name of Jojo’s learning experience. It’s deeply depressing to watch this character just accept subservience so as to help a literal nazi. All around, Jojo Rabbit goes deeply wrong and ends up as a deeply dangerous take on the holocaust. Plus, the middle is boring. It lulls after the initial shock and ill-advised humor (by the way, the one good thing I can say for this movie is that some of the humor is good. The four testicles joke? Actually works. The rest of the film? Nope), and becomes kind of unwatchable. I can’t understand why this movie is so beloved. Moonrise Kingdom exists, guys.

It’s Good, I Guess

This category contains 1 film, and it’s one I’m not really sure what to make of. It begins with an hour and a half that is, simply put, bad. Then it recovers with a final hour that’s nothing short of great. so, welcome to the Oscar BP rankings version of purgatory…

7- Ford v. Ferrari (dir. James Mangold)

Like I said, the first half of this is deeply and aggressively Not Good. It drags, it refuses to go into its characters, the performances are weak, it focuses on the wrong stuff. Damon’s usual charisma and Bale’s usual brilliance are stifled. Then the big race starts, and it all starts working. Bale is unleashed in all of his glorious Britishness, Damon’s character becomes eminently watchable, and there’s an hour remaining of cars going really fast and the Home Depot ads guy (I still can’t believe that was him) villain-ing around. It’s cinema. But it takes too long to get there. So what does one do with Ford v. Ferrari? Where does it go? Does it deserve to be ranked with the truly great stuff on the basis of its second half alone? No, but it doesn’t deserve to be lumped in with the above abominations either. The comparison is Vice from last year- by turns insufferable and brilliant, alternating between depicting nothing of value and well done eye-opening stuff. So Ford v. Ferrari gets stranded here, in between the great and the garbage. If you want to have a good time and watch dudes drive around in fast cars, you could do much worse. Just stick it out until it gets there. If you’re looking for 2001: A Space Odyssey, this is not your thing.

Legitimately Great

Fortunately, the majority of this year’s nominees are, as the section header proclaims, legitimately great (or better). These are films that excel and astound, and definitely deserve their place among the nominees, even if they shouldn’t be anywhere near a win considering the kind of stuff that’s above them. Anyway, even if they’re not the best things up for awards tonight, these absolutely deserve your attention.

6- 1917 (dir. Sam Mendes)

While watching Sam Mendes’ (let’s be real here, it’s Roger Deakins’) 1917, you can’t help but feel a visceral reaction to what you’re seeing. The “how did they do that???” moments pile up as the film progresses, the clock ticks, and the tension escalates to an unbearable level. The credits roll and you have goosebumps, and then you leave the theater and someone mentions it 2 days later and you think “Oh yeah, I saw that”. 1917 is maybe the year’s foremost technical stunner, and that makes it a marvel to watch, but you’re left devoid of anything to really hold onto after the movie draws to a close. Now, does that make it a bad or even mediocre film? No, it’s under the “legitimately great” section. Sometimes all you can ask for in a film is a visceral experience that absolutely envelops you, regardless of how much you find yourself thinking about it later. Is it going to win Best Picture? Probably, and the fact that it shouldn’t will likely taint it further in everyone’s memory. But it’s a cool enough movie, and when you have people this talented (Deakins, the absolute GOAT) working at making it as good as it is, that’s enough.

5- Marriage Story (dir. Noah Baumbach)

Marriage Story is a good old-fashioned acting showcase, in which two of the planet’s finest go head to head, with the assistance of Noah Baumbach’s brilliant dialogue. It’s entertaining and emotional, it’s funny and sad, it’s got something for everyone. I’m shocked that, considering how much it feels tailor-made for the Oscars, it isn’t faring better, especially considering the preferential ballot. My bet is that the voting body didn’t like the less-than-glowing critique of Los Angeles offered by the film. Anyway, it’s great. Baumbach fans will find something to love, and it’s a great intro for newcomers. It’s also useful for letting people know just how great Adam Driver is (for those who haven’t seen Inside Llewyn Davis). It’s also gonna finally be Laura Dern’s Oscar. There are no downsides to this movie.

Utter Masterpieces

We now come to the Utter Masterpieces, works of staggering brilliance by modern auteurs that will all almost certainly get snubbed in favor of the 90 billionth war movie since 2010 (which I actually do like quite a bit, it’s just, you know, uggh). So without further ado, here are this year’s “too good for the Oscars” movies.

4- Little Women (dir. Greta Gerwig)

Gerwig’s Little Women is the only film in the BP field to represent one of 2019’s coolest cinematic trends: filmmakers following up their groundbreaking, masterful, cultural-event first features with sophomore efforts that are even better. Jordan Peele’s Us, Robert Eggers’ The Lighthouse, and Ari Aster’s Midsommar all fall into this category with Little Women, with the latter even sharing star Florence Pugh, who is absolutely incredible in both films. However, the real MVP of Little Women is Saoirse Ronan, who is very quickly establishing herself as maybe the best actress of her generation and here delivers possibly her career best. On a less-lighthearted note, it’s the only female directed film in competition, however it didn’t earn a best director nod (an absolute embarrassment). Little Women is spectacularly great from start to finish. Every performance is stellar, it’s technically flawless, and Gerwig’s writing and direction is nothing short of generational. She’s going to be a talent to watch for a very long time, and hopefully her film doesn’t go home empty handed tonight, as it appears it might.

3- The Irishman (dir. Martin Scorsese)

There were some who thought that it couldn’t work. Some delusional souls who thought that the greatest working director couldn’t pull of a 3 and a half hour work propelled by basically-retired actors and unproven visual effects. There are some who still believe it didn’t work. These people are fools. The Irishman is a late career opus from Scorsese, who returns to his known terrain of gangster movies to deliver a stunning meditation on mortality and the pitfalls of violence. It’s decidedly a rebuke of the mob culture people have accused him of glorifying, showing the (very) dark side of the lifestyle in heartbreaking fashion. Anchored by great performance after great performance, this film extracts De Niro’s best work in decades, Pacino’s best work since maybe Godfather II, and Pesci’s best work… ever? Maybe ever. This is all in addition to revelatory turns by Stephen Graham and Ray Romano, of all people. Plus, Anna Paquin sells her silence with a determined passion and her one verbal scene with a devastating deadpan resignation that would be the best single piece of acting in the whole thing, were it not for De Niro’s phone call immediately following it. Oh, and Pacino shouting “SOLIDARITY”. Brilliance. The Irishman ranks among one of the decade’s best films, and yet it feels like a possibility it goes home empty handed tonight. Only time will tell, fittingly enough.

2- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (dir. Quentin Tarantino)

Quentin Tarantino’s latest sits in the top tier of his uniformly terrific body of work, which is no small feat. Neither is bringing out career best work from (presumptive best supporting actor winner) Brad Pitt and (greatest actor of his generation) Leonardo DiCaprio. It’s one of his best scripts, loaded with his typical dialogue and recurring motifs. But it’s a little jarring once you realize what, exactly, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is: it strips away Tarantino’s trademark tension in favor of a more contemplative pace, content to just exist in L.A. circa 1969 with these characters. And that’s what makes the film so great, that atmosphere. Yes, there’s spots of typical Tarantino brilliance: the Spahn Ranch scene, that climax, and of course, the nostalgia-soaked sequence of the neon signs turning on set to the strings version of the Rolling Stones’ “Out of Time”. Let’s play it again, shall we?

Oh yeah. That’s the stuff. Hollywood is so typically Tarantino, yet so far from what he’s previously done, that you can’t help but look on with intense fascination and adoration. It’s mesmerizing and unique, and the Academy could do far worse than honor it tonight.

Parasite

This section contains Parasite.

1- Parasite (dir. Bong Joon-Ho)

There’s no way to sell this short: Parasite is by far the year’s best film, and would slot in over all time masterworks the likes of The Silence of the Lambs, The Apartment, and Annie Hall as one of the top 5 greatest winners in the history of the Best Picture award (the other 4, for reference, are both Godfather movies, Moonlight, and Casablanca). It is a beguiling, unclassifiable masterpiece. It is one of the most successful subtitled films of all time. It is like nothing you’ve ever seen before. If Joker represents the nadir of modern cinema, Parasite represents its apex. There is nothing I can possibly say that hasn’t already been said, nothing I can do that would convey just how great it is. If you’ve seen it, you know I’m right, if you haven’t, go see it. There’s nothing to do know but hope, pray to whatever god decides these things (quite possibly Bong Joon-Ho) that Parasite comes away with the Oscar for Best Picture.