92nd Academy Awards: The Best Picture Nominees, Ranked

We’re here. Today, February 9th, is the day of the 92nd Academy Awards, which is always the best day of the year… until they start announcing the winners. But it’s always fun, in the run-up to the awards, to hope that the movie you’re rooting for has a chance. As I did last year, I watched all the nominees for Best Picture prior to the ceremony for the sake of completion. Having watched some bona fide masterpieces and sat through some utter garbage, I feel as though the disparity between potential victors is vast, enough that I feel the need to categorize the nominees into sections to illustrate the quality gap. But remember, whatever happens, it’s almost guaranteed to be a huge disappointment. So sit back, relax, and get furious at the outcome of the show.

The Nominees

Unforgivable Trash

This category may strike you as particularly harsh, but the films that inhabit it are fully deserving of this dubious honor. In a year with such tremendous works of art at the top of this category, it’s sad and yet poetic that there’s this level of garbage littering the bottom of the barrel. Anyway, here’s two movies that everyone loves!

9- Joker (dir. Todd Phillips)

BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEECCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. Joker has to be the worst movie to ever amass this number of Oscar nominations. With 11 nods handed to this verifiable piece of trash, the success of Joker signals an unmistakable death knell for the film industry, one where intentionally derivative faux-inflammatory trash earns double digit Oscar nomination totals and a billion dollars at the box office while original masterpieces like Uncut Gems and Us get shut out. Joker represents everything wrong with movies today. It pretends as if it has some grand message about society, that it has an actual knowledge of cinematic history, that it’s above its superhero movie brethren. It follows none of this criteria. There’s no message here. Joker doesn’t have the guts to take a side or actually say anything meaningful, it simply tricks its audience into thinking it does by using dark cinematography, a foreboding score, an R rating, and a protest movement name (“Kill the Rich”) that was thought through for 3 seconds. Or maybe that’s giving it too much credit. Joker‘s cinematic knowledge is that it’s seen Taxi Driver like 10 times and didn’t understand it at all. It gleefully rips from that superior film in embarrassing fashion, even making a hamfisted and cringe-inducing nod to the “You talkin’ to me?” scene. It also drags Brian De Palma’s Blow Out into it via a theater marquee at the end, which depresses me to no end as not one, but two perfect films are now implicated in this train wreck. Worst of all, it pretends to be above its fellow superhero movies, yet never misses a chance to shoehorn in an unnecessary bit of fan service lore. A dumpster fire.

8- Jojo Rabbit (dir. Taika Waititi)

Oh, man. I may have put this above Joker, but it could really go either way. I’ve never seen a movie, not Green Book, not Crash, that has made me feel quite as gross as Jojo Rabbit. It’s technically fine, and Waititi is a very funny person, but that’s the problem. Waititi’s typical goofiness is not a fit for the material, especially as it starts descending into more serious territory. Jojo Rabbit takes a horrifying view of the atrocities at its center, which is that the perpetrators were victims as well. Sam Rockwell’s gay nazi is shown to be a sympathetic character because he’s gay and he helps Jojo avoid nazi persecution in one scene, but he’s still a nazi, one who enthusiastically and effectively serves a cause that seeks to destroy him and people like him. There is no possible sympathy for this character. Nor is there any for the German people who sat and watched the nazis take over, who the movie would like you to believe are the ones who truly suffered here. There’s a scene towards the end where “innocent” German citizens are herded into a losing battle, and you almost feel sorry for them. But it’s hard not to remember that these are people who watched Hitler rise to power and cheered him on. Then there’s the issue of the Jewish character (singular). Thomasin McKenzie’s Elsa, a Jewish girl who Jojo’s mother is hiding, is used strictly as a tool for Jojo to better himself as a person. She endures endless abuse at his hands, and just takes it, in the name of Jojo’s learning experience. It’s deeply depressing to watch this character just accept subservience so as to help a literal nazi. All around, Jojo Rabbit goes deeply wrong and ends up as a deeply dangerous take on the holocaust. Plus, the middle is boring. It lulls after the initial shock and ill-advised humor (by the way, the one good thing I can say for this movie is that some of the humor is good. The four testicles joke? Actually works. The rest of the film? Nope), and becomes kind of unwatchable. I can’t understand why this movie is so beloved. Moonrise Kingdom exists, guys.

It’s Good, I Guess

This category contains 1 film, and it’s one I’m not really sure what to make of. It begins with an hour and a half that is, simply put, bad. Then it recovers with a final hour that’s nothing short of great. so, welcome to the Oscar BP rankings version of purgatory…

7- Ford v. Ferrari (dir. James Mangold)

Like I said, the first half of this is deeply and aggressively Not Good. It drags, it refuses to go into its characters, the performances are weak, it focuses on the wrong stuff. Damon’s usual charisma and Bale’s usual brilliance are stifled. Then the big race starts, and it all starts working. Bale is unleashed in all of his glorious Britishness, Damon’s character becomes eminently watchable, and there’s an hour remaining of cars going really fast and the Home Depot ads guy (I still can’t believe that was him) villain-ing around. It’s cinema. But it takes too long to get there. So what does one do with Ford v. Ferrari? Where does it go? Does it deserve to be ranked with the truly great stuff on the basis of its second half alone? No, but it doesn’t deserve to be lumped in with the above abominations either. The comparison is Vice from last year- by turns insufferable and brilliant, alternating between depicting nothing of value and well done eye-opening stuff. So Ford v. Ferrari gets stranded here, in between the great and the garbage. If you want to have a good time and watch dudes drive around in fast cars, you could do much worse. Just stick it out until it gets there. If you’re looking for 2001: A Space Odyssey, this is not your thing.

Legitimately Great

Fortunately, the majority of this year’s nominees are, as the section header proclaims, legitimately great (or better). These are films that excel and astound, and definitely deserve their place among the nominees, even if they shouldn’t be anywhere near a win considering the kind of stuff that’s above them. Anyway, even if they’re not the best things up for awards tonight, these absolutely deserve your attention.

6- 1917 (dir. Sam Mendes)

While watching Sam Mendes’ (let’s be real here, it’s Roger Deakins’) 1917, you can’t help but feel a visceral reaction to what you’re seeing. The “how did they do that???” moments pile up as the film progresses, the clock ticks, and the tension escalates to an unbearable level. The credits roll and you have goosebumps, and then you leave the theater and someone mentions it 2 days later and you think “Oh yeah, I saw that”. 1917 is maybe the year’s foremost technical stunner, and that makes it a marvel to watch, but you’re left devoid of anything to really hold onto after the movie draws to a close. Now, does that make it a bad or even mediocre film? No, it’s under the “legitimately great” section. Sometimes all you can ask for in a film is a visceral experience that absolutely envelops you, regardless of how much you find yourself thinking about it later. Is it going to win Best Picture? Probably, and the fact that it shouldn’t will likely taint it further in everyone’s memory. But it’s a cool enough movie, and when you have people this talented (Deakins, the absolute GOAT) working at making it as good as it is, that’s enough.

5- Marriage Story (dir. Noah Baumbach)

Marriage Story is a good old-fashioned acting showcase, in which two of the planet’s finest go head to head, with the assistance of Noah Baumbach’s brilliant dialogue. It’s entertaining and emotional, it’s funny and sad, it’s got something for everyone. I’m shocked that, considering how much it feels tailor-made for the Oscars, it isn’t faring better, especially considering the preferential ballot. My bet is that the voting body didn’t like the less-than-glowing critique of Los Angeles offered by the film. Anyway, it’s great. Baumbach fans will find something to love, and it’s a great intro for newcomers. It’s also useful for letting people know just how great Adam Driver is (for those who haven’t seen Inside Llewyn Davis). It’s also gonna finally be Laura Dern’s Oscar. There are no downsides to this movie.

Utter Masterpieces

We now come to the Utter Masterpieces, works of staggering brilliance by modern auteurs that will all almost certainly get snubbed in favor of the 90 billionth war movie since 2010 (which I actually do like quite a bit, it’s just, you know, uggh). So without further ado, here are this year’s “too good for the Oscars” movies.

4- Little Women (dir. Greta Gerwig)

Gerwig’s Little Women is the only film in the BP field to represent one of 2019’s coolest cinematic trends: filmmakers following up their groundbreaking, masterful, cultural-event first features with sophomore efforts that are even better. Jordan Peele’s Us, Robert Eggers’ The Lighthouse, and Ari Aster’s Midsommar all fall into this category with Little Women, with the latter even sharing star Florence Pugh, who is absolutely incredible in both films. However, the real MVP of Little Women is Saoirse Ronan, who is very quickly establishing herself as maybe the best actress of her generation and here delivers possibly her career best. On a less-lighthearted note, it’s the only female directed film in competition, however it didn’t earn a best director nod (an absolute embarrassment). Little Women is spectacularly great from start to finish. Every performance is stellar, it’s technically flawless, and Gerwig’s writing and direction is nothing short of generational. She’s going to be a talent to watch for a very long time, and hopefully her film doesn’t go home empty handed tonight, as it appears it might.

3- The Irishman (dir. Martin Scorsese)

There were some who thought that it couldn’t work. Some delusional souls who thought that the greatest working director couldn’t pull of a 3 and a half hour work propelled by basically-retired actors and unproven visual effects. There are some who still believe it didn’t work. These people are fools. The Irishman is a late career opus from Scorsese, who returns to his known terrain of gangster movies to deliver a stunning meditation on mortality and the pitfalls of violence. It’s decidedly a rebuke of the mob culture people have accused him of glorifying, showing the (very) dark side of the lifestyle in heartbreaking fashion. Anchored by great performance after great performance, this film extracts De Niro’s best work in decades, Pacino’s best work since maybe Godfather II, and Pesci’s best work… ever? Maybe ever. This is all in addition to revelatory turns by Stephen Graham and Ray Romano, of all people. Plus, Anna Paquin sells her silence with a determined passion and her one verbal scene with a devastating deadpan resignation that would be the best single piece of acting in the whole thing, were it not for De Niro’s phone call immediately following it. Oh, and Pacino shouting “SOLIDARITY”. Brilliance. The Irishman ranks among one of the decade’s best films, and yet it feels like a possibility it goes home empty handed tonight. Only time will tell, fittingly enough.

2- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (dir. Quentin Tarantino)

Quentin Tarantino’s latest sits in the top tier of his uniformly terrific body of work, which is no small feat. Neither is bringing out career best work from (presumptive best supporting actor winner) Brad Pitt and (greatest actor of his generation) Leonardo DiCaprio. It’s one of his best scripts, loaded with his typical dialogue and recurring motifs. But it’s a little jarring once you realize what, exactly, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is: it strips away Tarantino’s trademark tension in favor of a more contemplative pace, content to just exist in L.A. circa 1969 with these characters. And that’s what makes the film so great, that atmosphere. Yes, there’s spots of typical Tarantino brilliance: the Spahn Ranch scene, that climax, and of course, the nostalgia-soaked sequence of the neon signs turning on set to the strings version of the Rolling Stones’ “Out of Time”. Let’s play it again, shall we?

Oh yeah. That’s the stuff. Hollywood is so typically Tarantino, yet so far from what he’s previously done, that you can’t help but look on with intense fascination and adoration. It’s mesmerizing and unique, and the Academy could do far worse than honor it tonight.

Parasite

This section contains Parasite.

1- Parasite (dir. Bong Joon-Ho)

There’s no way to sell this short: Parasite is by far the year’s best film, and would slot in over all time masterworks the likes of The Silence of the Lambs, The Apartment, and Annie Hall as one of the top 5 greatest winners in the history of the Best Picture award (the other 4, for reference, are both Godfather movies, Moonlight, and Casablanca). It is a beguiling, unclassifiable masterpiece. It is one of the most successful subtitled films of all time. It is like nothing you’ve ever seen before. If Joker represents the nadir of modern cinema, Parasite represents its apex. There is nothing I can possibly say that hasn’t already been said, nothing I can do that would convey just how great it is. If you’ve seen it, you know I’m right, if you haven’t, go see it. There’s nothing to do know but hope, pray to whatever god decides these things (quite possibly Bong Joon-Ho) that Parasite comes away with the Oscar for Best Picture.

92nd Academy Awards nominations: takeaways

UUUUUUUUGGGGHHHH.

For those of us who love the Oscars, Oscar season is always a complicated time. On one hand, the Oscars are happening, and that’s pretty cool. But on the other hand, the presence of the Oscars serves no real purpose but to remind everyone how much they fundamentally suck. The nominations, revealed today, for this year’s iteration of the awards, are an encapsulation of why the Oscars are so cool and why they suck so.

For this post, I will be diving into the nods for the following categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best International Feature Film, Best Documentary Feature, Best Original Score, Best Production Design, and Best Costume Design. I will be editorializing a disgusting amount, and offering up varying degrees of knowledge based on how much I know about these categories. For each category, I will go through the snubs, the surprises, what should win, and what’s going to win, as well as providing a fact about the category that will inevitably just devolve into me cracking bad jokes. Let’s start off with an overview of the nomination totals.

Leading the pack with 10 each were 1917, The Irishman, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Following those is- what’s that? I forgot something? OH. OH CRAP. THAT’S EDGY CLOWN’S MUSIC.

LIVING IN SOCIETY. The film, which I shall not call by its godforsaken real name for fear of summoning its evil spirit, shall for the duration of this post be Edgy Clown. Edgy Clown’s dominance, scoring 11 nominations, is depressing proof of the idiocy of these awards. Legitimately the worst major studio release of the year scored the most nods, above such masterpieces as Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and The Irishman. Those 11 nods could have gone to more deserving films that were completely shut out such as Uncut Gems (a pipe dream, I’m aware, but man it would’ve been so cool), and Us (not a pipe dream, an infuriating snub, but I’ll get to that later). Anyway, I’ll have plenty of time to complain about Edgy Clown in the actual awards, unfortunately, so let’s get started.

Best Picture

The nominees: 1917, Ford V. Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

The surprises: Nope. Ford V Ferrari is a bit of a surprise, but there’s no real shock here.

The snubs: I mean, Uncut Gems, The Lighthouse, Us, Pain and Glory, any number of masterpieces from this year that never had a shot. In terms of actual strong contenders that didn’t make it, there’s really nothing. Bombshell looked strong for a bit, Knives Out had a day or two where it appeared to maybe have something, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood looked like a lock well before the process even started but fizzled out in the months since it actually got released. There’s no outrageous “what, no If Beale Street Could Talk???” this year because those great ones that didn’t make it never looked like they could.

What should win:

Parasite better win or else. But in the (sadly likely) event that it doesn’t pull it off, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Little Women, and The Irishman are totally valid winners.

What will win: 1917. The other contenders are Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Edgy Clown, which looks like an even stronger contender than before in the wake of its appalling double digit nomination figure, and they could all absolutely win. But 1917 is taking everything. It even managed a surprise screenplay nod, and has been winning the major awards from everywhere. it just feels to me like the winner from here. However, Parasite’s SAG win puts it right in there. It’s gonna be one of those 2. The DGAs will shed more light, although I’m still saying 1917.

Fun Fact: The race is notable for the presence of Parasite, South Korea’s first ever nominee in any category, including foreign language film. It’s also notable for squandering this goodwill by nominating Edgy Clown, which is basically a war crime.

Best Director

The nominees: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Todd Philips (Edgy Clown), Sam Mendes (1917), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)

The surprises: Philips looked vulnerable following his DGA nomination miss, but winds up here anyway over such speculative candidates as Pedro Almodovar, Greta Gerwig, The Safdie Brothers, and Taika Waititi, who got the fifth DGA spot.

The snubs: Those people I listed above, or really any women. This is getting ridiculous.

Who should win: Bong Joon-ho, not only for his magnificent achievement this year, but as sort of an apology for ignoring Okja, the best film of 2017. (Disclaimer: that statement does not represent any sort of rational thought on what is actually the best film of 2017, although it very well may be Okja, it is merely a manifestation of the rush I get from thinking about Okja.

Who will win: Bong or Mendes. Bong could win for the reason Cuaron won it last year: the Academy saying “look, we’re kinda trying, okay?”. Mendes looks good for the technical achievement of 1917.

Fun fact: Women also direct movies.

Best Actor

The Nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time In Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Edgy Clown), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

The Surprises: Pryce and Banderas were in the conversation, but their recognition wasn’t really a guarantee, especially in a field this crowded. Pryce really looked bad based on how his film was doing, but managed to sneak in here.

The Snubs: Adam Sandler. In Uncut Gems, Sandler gives one of the year’s best performances, but gets no Oscar love for it. Robert De Niro for The Irishman falls into this category as well, as does Robert Pattinson for The Lighthouse (although he really didn’t have a shot. Taron Egerton was getting forecasted a lot for Rocketman, so his exclusion comes as something of a surprise.

Who should win: Antonio Banderas. He’s so transcendentally brilliant in Pain and Glory that he should probably win every award in the entire show for good measure. It is, however, hard to pick against DiCaprio giving maybe his career best performance in Hollywood, which is a heavy statement.

Who will win: *sigh*. Phoenix. It’s such a shame that Joaquin Phoenix, one of the greatest actors of his generation, will win his Oscar for his subpar work in Edgy Clown, as opposed to his historically brilliant turns in such films as The Master, Her, You Were Never Really Here, and even Gladiator. To his credit, Phoenix does his best with abysmal material, but the sheer dog crap that is the script sinks the performance to the point of no return.

Fun fact: Pryce becomes the first (tied, I guess) person to be nominated for an Oscar for playing a pope. Which sounds cool until you look up how many cinematic portrayals of popes there have actually been.

Best Actress

The nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)

The surprises: Erivo was kind of a shock, but not really.

The snubs: I’ll get the public uproar over Awkwafina missing for The Farewell out of the way before I launch into the day’s biggest crime: the overlooking of Lupita Nyong’o’s all time great performance(s) in Us. I mean what the hell, guys? Maybe I’m just a dual performance sucker (my favorite Gyllenhaal role is Enemy), but Nyong’o gave the best performance of the whole year (save maybe for Banderas). It just makes no sense.

Who should win: Nyong’o’s snub casts a pall over this race, as does the shoo-in win of Zellweger, but Ronan is truly fantastic and should be recognized.

Who will win: Zellweger. No contest. This is maybe the easiest race to predict, with the possible exception of cinematography. She has all the momentum, all the buzz, and she’s just winning everything. This is gonna be a bloodbath.

Fun fact: With a win in this category or in original song, Cynthia Erivo would become an EGOT winner. This is because the other three necessary awards bodies all recognized her work in Bad Times in The El Royale and just gave her all their awards (Disclaimer: no).

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

The surprises: Bates came out of nowhere. I’ve been looking at these nominees all day and I came to her name just now and still did a double take.

The snubs: Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers has twitter in flames, and comes as a massive shock. She looked like a total lock for at least a nod, and maybe a threat to win.

Who should win: Dern, not only because the performance rules, but also as a lifetime achievement award. Justice for the Blue Velvet snub! Pugh would also absolutely be acceptable. The trend between those two is that they were both better in other things this year (Dern in Little Women and Pugh in Midsommar), but they also ruled in their nominated roles. I’m saying Dern should win, even though Pugh might be a bit better, because Pugh is gonna be a star for a long time, and it just feels like Dern’s year.

Who will win: Dern, for the reasons I listed above. However, I don’t think you can count out Johansson, who pulled off two nods in the same year and as such may get extra attention, nor can you fully discount Margot Robbie or Florence Pugh, who give brilliant yet ignored performances in other movies.

Fun fact: After Bombshell’s critical lashing, the studio switched its Oscar campaigning to Knives Out. Bombshell pulled off more nominations, including this one.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

The surprises: Hopkins, kinda. Again, Two Popes really didn’t look good for these.

The snubs: Song Kang Ho missing for Parasite is a tragedy, as is Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse (seemed less likely, but still).

Who should win: This is tough. Pesci and Pacino are both so, so brilliant in Irishman. Pitt in Hollywood is tremendous. I’m going with Pesci, although I would be ecstatic with a win for either of the other two. It would probably by Pitt, except I think that it’s category fraud.

Who will win: Pitt. He has the momentum, plus he’s the only nominee without an Oscar for acting (he’s won for producing 12 Years a Slave). Pesci and Pacino are his major threats, and coming from the same movie they could split the vote.

Fun fact: I read today that this is the first acting category of the 21st century not to feature a nominee with a crying scene. That is insane and also cool as hell. I can’t verify that, but I believe it because it sounds right and also I don’t want to live in a world where something that outrageous can’t be true.

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: Knives Out, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

The surprises: Knives Out and 1917 were far from guarantees here.

The snubs: Booksmart and The Farewell are the popular consensus snubs here. People were also pulling for Hustlers and Us in this one, even though those were longshots.

What should win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Tarantino is almost always the answer in this category when he’s in it.

What will win: It’s starting to look more and more like Parasite, but it could go either way between it and Hollywood. Either way, this is the best Oscars race ever. There is some justice.

Fun fact: Rian Johnson, director of The Last Jedi, is still enduring hate from people still upset about one of the best ever Star Wars movies. He is now an Oscar nominee. Screw you, people who are so mad about a great movie that they continue to torment its creator.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Little Women, The Two Popes

The surprises: none.

The snubs: nothing high profile. This was pretty clearly the lineup.

What should win: Irishman or Little Women. These are the two that aren’t war crimes, and they’re both phenomenal. Edgy Clown has maybe the worst screenplay I’ve ever seen in a movie, and Jojo Rabbit’s is so painfully tone deaf. Two Popes isn’t great either: I like the movie, but Anthony McCarten is a menace, a dangerous hack who thinks it’s okay to drop a six-hour detour into the middle of a great character piece. Irishman gave us such lines as “you might be demonstrating a failure to show appreciation”, which is usable literally every day in random conversation. As incredible as Little Women is, I’m saying give it to The Irishman.

What will win: Jojo Rabbit, because this is hell.

Fun fact: Last year, Anthony McCarten wrote Bohemian Rhapsody, a script so embarrassingly bad I declared it the worst ever. This year, he goes up against Edgy Clown, the screenplay that dethroned it.

Best Cinematography

The nominees: The Irishman, Edgy Clown, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The surprises: something as great yet weird as The Lighthouse getting any recognition is always a surprise, and it’s always cool.

The snubs: Parasite getting shafted in favor of Edgy Clown is a war crime. Ad Astra missing is also not great, but that really didn’t have much buzz.

What should win: I finally saw 1917. It’s that. Maybe the greatest cinematography of any movie since Barry Lyndon (hyperbole. But maybe.) I’m keeping the Lighthouse still there because I can and because I would like to continue celebrating both the existence of that movie and the fact that it got an Oscar nomination.

Yeah man. That’s the stuff.

What will win: 1917. Not even close.

Best Film Editing

The nominees: Ford V Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Parasite

The surprises: Edgy Clown and Jojo Rabbit weren’t supposed to be here.

The snubs: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood missing is disgraceful. 1917 had some buzz (it won the critics choice award for editing last night), which was immediately met with backlash regarding how little editing is required for the one take gambit.

What should win: Parasite. Without saying too much, there’s one sequence towards the middle of the film that stands out as one of the best edited in recent memory. Irishman is a viable contender too (Thelma is the GOAT). The editing in Edgy Clown sucks, so hopefully it isn’t that. I just really dislike Edgy Clown.

What will win: Irishman? I think? Not sure.

Fun fact: this is a critical category for BP hopefuls. Since 1989, only one BP winner missed a nod in this category, which is bad news for titanic candidates Once Upon a time in Hollywood and 1917. HOWEVER: the one winner to miss an editing nod… was Birdman, the last major one-take film. Does this mean this doesn’t really matter for 1917? It’s certainly interesting.

Best International Feature Film

The Nominees: Corpus Christi, Honeyland, Les Miserables, Pain and Glory, Parasite

The surprises: Not really anything.

The snubs: Celine Sciamma’s Portrait of a Lady on Fire wasn’t even up for consideration due to France’s submission of Les Miserables, but the critical adoration it received qualify it for a mention here. Mati Diop’s Atlantics is the other recipient of massive acclaim that was left out.

What should win: Parasite is basically the best movie ever, but DAMN do I love Pain and Glory. Give this to Pain and Glory and BP to Parasite and we’ll call it even.

What will win: Parasite. Despite what I’m about to tell you, there’s no stopping it here.

Fun fact: Parasite’s distributor, Neon, hasn’t campaigned in this category at all, in the hopes that it will be considered more strongly in other categories, such as BP. This complicates things slightly, because if it works, we’d be in uncharted territory. But it won’t.

Best Documentary Feature

The Nominees: American Factory, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, For Sama, Honeyland

The surprises: Two foreign language contenders, in For Sama and Honeyland.

The snubs: This marks the second year in a row where the heavy favorite to win the whole category (Won’t You Be My Neighbor) has missed a nod. This year, it’s Apollo 11.

What should win: Honeyland? Honeyland is pretty good.

What will win: Apollo 11’s snub has thrown this into chaos, so I don’t really know. I’m saying American Factory, because of the involvement of Higher Ground Productions, the production company founded by Barack and Michelle Obama.

Fun fact: It’s the Obama thing.

Best Original Score

The nominees: Edgy Clown, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

The surprises: none.

The snubs: MIDSOMMAR. But that was never getting in, nor did I have any hope of that, so I’ll reserve my anger for other things.

What should win: 1917! I had this as Edgy Clown, but now I can officially say that it should win zero awards! To hell with it! Thomas Newman’s 1917 work is, if not clearly better, clearly used better. It may, at times, be a bit much, but who cares, it’s a movie predicated on being too much, and it manages to pull it off. Hildur Guðnadóttir’s Edgy Clown score is still exceptional. If only it had a better movie to stand on. Randy Newman’s Marriage Story work is great too, it’s just that it doesn’t really fit the film. And it’s always tempting to say the Williams Star Wars score.

What will win: Edgy Clown.

Fun fact: Cousins Randy and Thomas Newman are competing against each other in this category (Marriage Story and 1917, respectively). They’ve done this a lot, yet neither of them has won in this category (Randy has 2 wins for song, however).

Best Production Design

The nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

The surprises: we’re at the point with these categories where nobody’s really surprised at anything because nobody was making any legit predictions.

The snubs: The Lighthouse. That movie rules and the titular location is fantastically assembled. Some people will tell you that Edgy Clown’s depiction of societal decay deserves a nod. These people are fools.

What should win: It comes down to Parasite, and the excellent main house set, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s brilliant recreation of 1969 Los Angeles. I’m saying Hollywood, because Parasite’s set never has a moment in the spotlight quite this brilliant:

What will win: Hollywood. That’s gonna be pretty hard to ignore.

Fun fact: I have seen Once Upon a Time in Hollywood all the way through twice. I have watched the above scene… more than that. It’s basically my favorite scene in any movie ~~ever~~ this year.

Best Costume Design

The nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The surprises: see this section above

The snubs: People are pissed that Dolemite is My Name missed in this category. This is another one I haven’t seen yet, but a quick glance at the costumes shows that it should’ve gotten in over Edgy Clown.

What should win: Once Upon a Time. The period detail combined with the instantly iconic Cliff Booth Hawaiian shirt puts it over the top.

What will win: Hollywood or Little Women, likely the former. The Academy hates women.

And so we come to the end of this preview. The Oscars are early this year, on Sunday, February 9th. I imagine things will be totally chill until then.