We stand at the precipice of the 93rd Academy Awards, a fittingly banal yet oddly compelling installment of a largely irrelevant yet oddly compelling awards show. These awards come at the conclusion of the Year When Movies Died, a horrifying stain on cinematic history that the stupid Academy of stupid Motion Picture Arts and Sciences dragged out for two impenetrably stupid months longer than usual so that they could film and edit the entirety of The Father in between the nominations and awards.

Things are grim in the world of film awards. First Cow was predictably yet heartbreakingly shafted. Expert prognosticators were left holding their visions of an America gripped by MankMania in their hands after David Fincher’s latest came and went without fanfare. The film was then bestowed 10 Oscar nominations, but alas, the ears of the nation had already turned away. Despite their best efforts, the show’s producers were unable to avoid setting another record for consecutive years without Bob Hope hosting. Nomadland, a perfectly good movie, is the most unstoppable lock to win Best Picture in quite some time, which will bring the entire enterprise to a close marked by a chorus of a million awed “yeah, ok”s. The film’s director, Chloe Zhao, will then go on to direct a Marvel movie, one of which is due to win 7 of these, including Best Picture, in at most three years.

This is all coming, of course, a year after Parasite‘s big win, a moment that renewed my faith in both the Oscars and the film industry as a whole. For one brief second, it felt like there was some hope to be had in breaking free from Hollywood’s total immersion in its own ass, in pushing people’s boundaries in their consumption of art. Then the pandemic happened, the studios decided that this was their big chance to kill movie theaters once and for all, and we were left with a Best Picture crop that, despite some really great films and no flat-out bad ones, manages to feel completely unremarkable. This is only partially a failure caused by the pandemic, to be clear, watching these films at home isn’t projecting any sort of lack of creativity onto them that isn’t actually there. I should’ve seen it coming. It’s useless to have hope in these sorts of things, it’s always one step forward and two steps back. Just look at a few years ago– The Shape of Water winning was a landmark moment for fish-human love advocates across the world, and it was followed up by Green Book, a movie that has all of zero scenes of fish-human intercourse, and is also bad. That’s what’s so uninteresting about this year: Nomadland inevitably winning won’t bring the same glee as Parasite, or even draw the same revulsion as Green Book. And it certainly won’t be nearly as hilarious as The Shape of Water, which is still useful as joke fodder over three years later. And, come Sunday night, it will happen, and the gilded list of films designated immortal by an arbitrary jury will grow by one, and we will forget about almost everything else nominated. And goddammit, I will be watching. After everything we’ve all been through in the last year, having something as dependable as whining about the Oscars to fall back on is unspeakably comforting. Having an exercise as futile and useless as scientifically parsing the winners in advance to rely on is a light in darkness. Is this insane? Is this hopeless Stockholm Syndrome level devotion to an actively harmful institution? You bet it is. In fact, I think I would advise anyone not as terminally sunk into it as I am to break free while you can. Apichatpong Weerasethakul’s 2010 masterpiece Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives is available to rent for just $3.99 on itunes. There is nothing stopping you from watching it while the Oscars are happening. There is no rule against this. But for my fellow obsessives, those of us who are going to let these things matter to us no matter how much we know they’re worthless, the Oscars loom. Awards will be given out, and the process of reacting way too much to their eventual results is already underway. Let’s dive in–

Best Picture

The nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

What will win: If you were thinking of putting money on this award, and you decided to bet on something other than Nomadland, you would genuinely be better off just setting that money on fire. That way, at least you don’t have any anticipation or false hope, and you end up with the same result.

What should win: Well, let’s see. The best movie of the year is David Byrne’s American Utopia, which is a filmed production of a Broadway concert and as such is probably ineligible. The best narrative film of the year is First Cow, but let’s be real here, the Academy is just not going to go for a Kelly Reichardt movie, with this or probably any award. The second best narrative film of the year is I’m Thinking of Ending Things, and ditto that for Charlie Kaufman. The best movie that could’ve conceivably been nominated is Da 5 Bloods, which was not nominated, because the Academy hates Spike Lee more than either Reichardt or Kaufman, and he’s actually won one of these. The best nominated film is either Minari or Sound of Metal. I guess Minari should probably win. Great movie. But, obviously, would not have been my very first choice.

Of note: With Minari (Steven Yeun) and Promising Young Woman (Sam Richardson) both nominated, 20% of this year’s Best Picture lineup consists of films featuring cast members of I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson, although Robinson himself is not in any of the nominees. Next year.

Best Director

The nominees: Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman, David Fincher – Mank, Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round, Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Who will win: This is Zhao’s award for the same reasons BP is Nomadland‘s. Awards bodies simply can’t seem to get enough of the movie. And while I would’ve made a different pick (see below), I can’t deny that Zhao will be a really great winner here. The movie is very good, yeah, but also women haven’t won this award nearly enough throughout the course of its history, nor have Asians. To give it to an Asian woman for a good movie is something I can’t possibly complain about.

Who should win: In a perfect world, a world where either Hong Sang-soo or Claire Denis has won this in every one of the last twenty years, I would not give this to Zhao. In that scenario, it would have to be Reichardt for First Cow (note: I still haven’t been able to see The Woman Who Ran. It could still be Hong). Of the nominees, though, it gets interesting. Minari is, as I’ve established, outstanding, and I would love to give it to Chung, but I actually think I’m going Vinterberg here. He got in on what I like to call the Cold War nomination, a phenomenon where slot five has gone to a foreign language film the Academy likes a lot for no discernible reason. Another Round is outstanding, and felt like one of the most completely directed films of the year as well. The film feels forceful in Vinterberg’s choices and style, carrying you along on the charisma and vigor its direction imbues it with. Would also be funny to go with Fincher for his most completely nothing movie.

Of note: Only one of these nominees gave us Mads Mikkelsen dancing.

Best Actor

The nominees: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari

Who will win: You know, Boseman has been a lock to win here for so long that it feels automatic, but I can’t bring myself to go to 100% with the adulation Hopkins has been getting. I think this’ll still be Boseman, but I’d watch out for the film sensation of awards season… uh… The Father.

Who should win: This is a super strong category. Boseman, if indeed he wins, will deserve it for reasons that have nothing to do with his tragic death, the performance is just that good. I’ll watch The Father tomorrow, but I imagine Hopkins is just ridiculously great. Oldman is fine, don’t know what he’s doing here though. Of the nominees, Yeun or Ahmed should win in my opinion. I’m saying Ahmed. It’s a masterpiece of a performance– playing someone losing their hearing is one thing, but to do it in a way that so evades everything usually showy about portraying a disability is astounding. This isn’t a role demanding plaudits, it’s just a beautiful, sad, perfect piece of acting. All of that being said, this category is rendered completely invalid by the exclusion of Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods, the single best performance in anything this year, across any category. Also would’ve liked to see Mikkelsen get in for Another Round. The dancing!

Of note: I already used my I Think You Should Leave note for Yeun, huh? Crap. Ok, let’s see. Gary Oldman became the first ever person nominated for playing Mank. I guess that’s interesting. Would be great if Mank became one of those characters who was just an inexplicable Oscar magnet, like the joker. I’m rolling on saying “Mank” now, this is gonna get out of hand. I liked the part in Mank where Josef von Sternberg showed up for like three seconds just so there could be a line about how he was Josef von Sternberg so you know that Fincher knows who Josef von Sternberg is. Calm down, man, we’ve all seen Shanghai Express. Would’ve been amazing if he had just had Mank launch into a bunch of terrible von Sternberg puns just to really sell this to the film nerds in the audience. Like just an awful series of “Ah, Dishonored to meet you, wink wink nudge nudge” and stuff like that. I think I would’ve actively campaigned for it for Best Picture.

Best Actress

The nominees: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Who will win: Ahahahahaha so yeah about that. This could literally go any one of four ways. Davis, Day, McDormand, and Mulligan have all won exactly one of the four major precursors (poor Vanessa Kirby). Nobody has any sort of visible advantage over any of the others (again, excluding Kirby). If I had to guess, I think I’d say Mulligan. Just feels like the performance they’d go for. But I still can’t shake the thought that Davis has to win this. But also they love Nomadland, maybe the hype crosses into this category and McDormand wins it. And Andra Day definitely does keep looming in my mind as a legitimate threat, despite the fact that she felt like the fifth one in here. I don’t know. Gun to my head, Mulligan, but I would not feel remotely confident about it.

Who should win: Jessie Buckley in I’m Thinking of Ending Things can still take this in the write-ins. There’s too much division. It’s anyone’s game. The right thing can still be done. In case that doesn’t pan out and it goes to one of the nominees, it’d probably be Davis in my opinion. Ma Rainey as a movie is pretty much fine, but as an acting showcase it’s the best thing I’ve seen all year. Mulligan would also be a very good winner. She’s been uniformly great in films that are beneath her for a decade now, and was unambiguously so in a film I was otherwise very split on in Promising Young Woman.

Of note: A Mulligan win would, I believe, be the first by an actor for a performance featuring a scene of singing Paris Hilton in a pharmacy. A similar scene was left on the cutting room floor of Olivia de Havilland in The Heiress, opening the door for Mulligan to make some history.

Ok I used The Heiress there completely at random and the more I’m thinking about it the more similarities I’m finding between The Heiress and Promising Young Woman. Heiress is better though. Watch The Heiress, everyone.

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami…, Paul Raci, Sound of Metal, Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Who will win: Kaluuya. And he’ll deserve it. He fully embodies Fred Hampton. He’s impossible to take your eyes off of whenever he’s on screen. And he cements himself as possibly the best actor currently working. My only quibble, and I’ll say a bit more on this in a minute, is that it’s not really a true supporting performance.

Who should win: A rare one in that my two favorite entries in this category this year are nominated. Kaluuya, as I already said, is unreal, but I think I’d call Paul Raci in Sound of Metal my favorite performance of the year, or at least second to Delroy Lindo. His last scene in the film brought me this close to sobbing, and I can’t say that about anyone else this year. Also, the only one in this category who actually gives a supporting performance as opposed to a prominent ensemble member or a straight up lead role that benefitted by the most baffling successful attempt at category fraud I’ve ever seen (look, Stanfield is great in Judas but how in the world is Jesse Plemons now apparently the lead in that movie?).

Of note: I’d like to use this section to highlight the following actual supporting actor performances of 2020 that I feel are deserving of some recognition:

• David Thewlis, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
• Alan Kim, Minari
• Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
• Bill Murray, On the Rocks
• Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
• Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Colman Domingo, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Toby Jones, First Cow
• David Strathairn, Nomadland
• Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
• Arliss Howard, Mank (the best part of this movie, you cannot convince me otherwise)

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Who will win: It’s starting to look like this is Youn’s, although it’s definitely not a sure thing. This could finally be Close’s year (if it ever will be). I definitely think that you can’t count Bakalova out yet. Seyfried was a big frontrunner for a while but has seemingly disappeared, I have to wonder if that was simply a tactical retreat in preparation for a late strike. I’m very tired.

Who should win: Youn or Bakalova, probably Youn. As the foul-mouthed grandmother in Minari, she makes the film, as well as becomes the first Hong Sang-soo regular to receive an Oscar nomination, beginning the path to Kim Min-hee dominating this category every year for the foreseeable future, as she should. Would also be extremely funny if Colman beat Close again. This is the second time I’ve talked about Hong Sang-soo in this post, which I think is interesting.

Of note: If Seyfried manages to pull this off, this would be the second straight year where this award has gone to a Twin Peaks: The Return cast member.

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Who will win: Promising Young Woman. So funny to me that Trial of the Chicago 7, a movie literally designed to win this award in particular, is not going to win.

Who should win: Judas, I think. I’ve talked about Sound of Metal and Minari in this post a lot, but I think writing-wise, Judas beats both of them. Like I said, I was split on Promising Young Woman. There was a lot of stuff I liked about it, but I did not think that the writing was one of these. Odd call I think. Not a ton to say about this one. It’s a screenplay one. Debated even doing it.

Of note: Jeremy Strong and his egg in Trial of the Chicago 7 is of note I think. Haven’t talked about that movie a lot. This might be my only chance.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami…, The White Tiger

Who will win: Nomadland. You know the drill by now.

Who should win: Borat. I mean, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, obviously, but of the nominees it has to be Borat. Don’t care how much of it was improvised. Perfect writing.

Of note: One Night in Miami… got completely killed on nominations in a way I definitely wasn’t expecting. I’m pretty much fine with it just getting in for Odom, screenplay, and song (I guess, the day I start paying attention to the songs is not a day that will come willingly), but I do want to plug Odom singing A Change is Gonna Come to close out the film, which is a completely phenomenal scene.

Best Cinematography

The nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

What will win: Take a wild guess.

What should win: Probably Nomadland. Above anything else, it looks unbelievable. Also really loved how Judas and the Black Messiah looked, glad it got in. I liked Mank‘s weird anachronistic black-and-white digital thing too, I know that was contentious but I felt it worked well. King of Digital David Fincher stays winning. Best cinematography of the year is either First Cow or Da 5 Bloods though.

Of note: Did you know that Mank was shot in black and white because it’s set in the 1940s, and most films in the 1940s were in black and white? Director David Fincher did this an homage. Also Orson Welles never surpassed Citizen Kane, we must always remember that. He was nothing without the studio system behind him. The studio system is good. It is nurturing. It is the glue that keeps the film industry, and society as a whole, together. Welles flew too close to the sun and never made another film agai- no what are you doing don’t look up The Lady From Shanghai no please just please accept the narrative that he peaked with Kane oh no oh God

Best Original Score

The nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul

Who will win: Trent Reznor is about to receive an Oscar for his work on a Pixar movie. The entire year in movies will be worth it for this fact.

Who should win: Like I said, I can’t complain about Reznor taking it for Soul, especially because it is a great score. This is also the only recognition Da 5 Bloods got, and the ever-brilliant Terence Blanchard deserves more recognition. However, for the second straight year, the best score comes courtesy of Emile Mosseri, who might be my favorite working film composer not named Angelo Badalamenti. His work on Minari is idiosyncratic and wonderful in a way that echoes his stunning soundscape for last year’s The Last Black Man in San Francisco, an utterly brilliant piece of work that I’m thrilled was nominated.

Of note: Trent Reznor and musical partner Atticus Ross received two of the five nods this year, for Soul and Mank. Their score for the former is, like I said, going to win, but their work on the latter is equally intricate and fascinating, making that film far more interesting than it could’ve been. Anyway, my notable fact here is once again that the guy who wrote Closer not only did the score for a Pixar movie, but did it so well that he’s gonna win an Oscar for it. It’s just too funny to me.

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These have been all the categories I can speak remotely intelligently on, and even a few on which I can’t. I can give you my strongest guarantee that everything I have said in here will turn out correct. Enjoy the Oscars, everyone. Or, again, Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives, if you want the exact opposite experience in both vibes and quality.