Tag: oscars

94th Academy Awards: The Best Picture Nominees, Ranked

For what is now the fourth year in a row, I have made the poor decision to watch every movie nominated for Best Picture before the Oscars. As this year demonstrated, this is a tradition that brings with it plenty of pain, bad movies, and despair about the recognition of these bad movies. This year’s crop is especially fascinating for the disparity between its best honorees (spectacular and miraculous that they ended up in the conversation) and its worst (atrocious, despicable paeans to the kind of movie that gets lavished with praise nowadays), and is, as always, a reminder that these awards mean absolutely nothing. Let’s get into it:

Tier 4B: A Note on a War Crime

Tier 4B contains just one movie, which manages to stand out among its awful brethren to the degree of deserving an entirely separate sub-tier.

10: Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay)

Without question the worst of the worst, once-important filmmaker Adam McKay (of righteous Anchorman and Talladega Nights acclaim) continues his long, strange journey up his own ass with this bombastic celebration of his own genius, a crowning achievement in smug incompetence disguised as moral elevation. Don’t Look Up decides that the issue with climate change is that the general populace has not been yelled at about it by private jet-flying celebrities enough, and proceeds to fashion two and a half hours of shrill, obnoxious, one-note satire around the idea that it’s doing the lord’s work on this important issue. Its built-in defense against good-faith criticisms of its utter ineptitude at actually, y’know, being a movie is the bad-faith idea that anyone taking issue with its clumsy execution must disagree with its premise (which is, in its entirety: “climate change… someone should do something about that, huh?”). So allow me to state, clearly, the following: climate change is a massive issue, maybe our second most pressing one in the world today, behind of course “what is in the water in Hollywood that possessed so many well-respected people to think any of this was okay?”. The cherry on top is that this wretched fart of a movie, which decides to coast on nothing but its moral high ground, features one of the most sickening performances I’ve ever seen in Mark Rylance’s tech billionaire character, the joke of which is clearly just “Heh heh guys, this weirdo has autism! Isn’t that soooo funny?”. I can’t wait for the show to be over so this disgusting, infuriating screed can be lost to time like it deserves.

Tier 4A: *Fart Noises*

This is the tier where the regular old run-of-the-mill crapulence gets its due. There are two movies here, very aligned in quality (or lack thereof), and which I resent the Oscars for forcing me to watch. Or maybe I resent myself for it. These are dire times.

9: Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)

Set at the onset of The Troubles in Northern Ireland, Kenneth Branagh’s passion project is limp, painfully boring, and bafflingly unwilling to engage with its complex setting beyond the idea of “isn’t religion so silly?”. Mostly this is just standard coming of age fodder, painfully directed and performed, bathed in ugly digital black and white, constantly cutting to better movies only to brutally pull the rug out from under you and remind you what you’re watching. There are 40 Van Morrison songs in this and not one of them is used well. It blows, folks.

8: Coda (Sian Heder)

Similar to Don’t Look Up, the defense for this turgid crap is that it features several actual deaf people in significant roles. Also similar to Don’t Look Up, this hides the fact that this movie sucks butt, and actually has very little to say about its subject matter. Rather than meaningfully engaging with the subject of deafness at its center, Coda sets up a conflict in which the hearing main character has to hide her passion for – get this – music, because her deaf family (lol) doesn’t like music. BECAUSE THEY CAN’T HEAR IT. This is written, directed, and performed like a fake movie, which is because it is a fake movie. If this wins, which is looking like an actual possibility, it will be one of the worst winners of all time, and not enough people are making a big deal out of this. The most unremarkable movie in any way but in how spectacularly it falls on its face, almost playing like a parody of a movie that gets raves at Sundance. Being held up as a triumph of indie filmmaking and word of mouth when in reality it only has any buzz because Apple spent billions of dollars in ads to prop up its front of a streaming service. Let this thing die, please, and watch the genuinely insightful and well-made Sound of Metal instead.

Tier 3: The Ether

This tier contains 2 movies, both deeply forgettable for different reasons. One is bad with a lot going for it, and one is completely fine with absolutely nothing going for it. These are the two movies I keep forgetting I’ve seen.

7: Nightmare Alley (Guillermo Del Toro)

Here’s the one that’s bad with a lot going for it. Nightmare Alley is undeniably beautiful, featuring a compelling central turn from Bradley Cooper, and some searing visuals and ideas. It’s also monstrously overlong and weirdly hollow in the same way The Shape of Water was, but drawn out to a painful degree in a way that makes it harder to hide. Such a shame, because there’s so much here that works, but soooo much that simply doesn’t.

6: King Richard (Reinaldo Marcus Green)

A perfectly fine, by-the-numbers sports biopic that you’ve seen, give or take, five thousand times before. Will Smith is pretty good in it, but it’s not a great sign when your movie focusing on the behind-the-scenes rise of widely celebrated figures is far better when it’s focusing on said widely celebrated figures.

Tier 2: It’s Pretty Good!

Tier 2 contains one movie, which happens to be the season-long favorite to take the whole thing. I’m here to tell you the following: It’s pretty good!

5: The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)

Almost frustratingly not-great, The Power of the Dog contains strong performances from its four central performers (Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons, and Kodi Smit-McPhee, all nominated), striking cinematography, and a banner score from one of the greatest working film composers (Jonny Greenwood). It never really combines those elements to reach the full potential of the sum of its parts, but that sum is astronomical, and the fact that it falls short isn’t really an indictment. If it ends up winning, it will be a perfectly fine winner, and also (I’m pretty sure) the only Best Picture winner to contain a graphic cattle castration scene.

Tier 1B: Oh Hell Yeah

There are, by my count, four movies in this years slate that are full-on masterpieces. I have decided to split them up, not to diminish the bottom two, but to underline the quality of the top two. So here’s the start of the good stuff:

4: Dune (Denis Villeneuve)

When I went into Dune, my expectations were on the floor. I was on record as a Villeneuve skeptic who disliked his Blade Runner movie and believed him to be too ephemeral in his strengths to handle long, overarching narratives. And then I left Dune ready to watch the next two and a half hours on the spot. This movie is a miracle, a nearly perfect sci-fi spectacle that wrangles its many threads into a coherent and emotionally involving whole. A stunning sensory experience wholly deserving of the praise and attention, a barnburner made within the demands of the studio system that breathes new life into big-budget filmmaking.

3: West Side Story (Steven Spielberg)

Likewise, I had my doubts about Spielberg’s update of the original classic, a movie I adore. The first look gave a much more beige picture of the film than I would’ve liked based on the vibrancy of the original. Then he stepped up to the plate with his most vibrant and exciting film since… Juassic Park? Close Encounters of the Third Kind? Ever? This thing is just incredible. Absolutely captivating from the first frame to the last, perhaps an improvement over the original in kind of every way. The performances are stunning, in accordance with the movie’s spirit of reverence yet improvement. You forget that Spielberg has this talent in him, almost, but watching it actually play out feels like nobody else could’ve pulled it off. One of his very best films, and one of the highlights of the year.

Tier 1A: Oh HELL Yeah

This is the tier with the very best of the best, two films whose nominations I consider reasons for the continued existence of the academy. Everyone should see these movies, and their presence in this group makes it far more likely that people will.

2: Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)

I’ve written at length about both this movie and how cool it is that it’s nominated. So I’ll just reiterate quickly that Ryusuke Hamaguchi, one of the most exciting voices in contemporary global cinema, made a stunning masterpiece that’s totally antithetical to everything the Oscars have ever been and it worked its way to a Best Picture nod by sheer virtue of being great. And because of this, more people will find his work, and he will have greater reign to do whatever he would like in the near future. And that, to me, is the true victory of these awards. Whatever crap is in the back half of this list, it’s all worth it if things like Drive My Car can get in the conversation.

1: Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)

25 years ago, Paul Thomas Anderson made Boogie Nights, a masterpiece of American cinema that still stands as one of the foremost examples of artistic genius you can produce from this country’s recent history. This past year, Anderson made Licorice Pizza, a masterpiece that provides evidence for the continued existence of brilliant Hollywood filmmaking. In between these two movies, he made 6 films, all of which are (guess what) masterpieces. Getting blessed with new Anderson feels too good to be true, and it just so happens that Licorice Pizza is another totally singular entry in his remarkable oeuvre. Light and fun yet resonant and satisfying, this is one of the best films of the year.

And so concludes the rundown of the best picture slate from 2021. Maybe next year will be the year I decide to stop doing this to myself.

Oscars Preview: What Will Win, What Should Win, and What I Still Haven’t Watched Out of Unwillingness to Pay $20 to Watch News of the World in My Living Room

We stand at the precipice of the 93rd Academy Awards, a fittingly banal yet oddly compelling installment of a largely irrelevant yet oddly compelling awards show. These awards come at the conclusion of the Year When Movies Died, a horrifying stain on cinematic history that the stupid Academy of stupid Motion Picture Arts and Sciences dragged out for two impenetrably stupid months longer than usual so that they could film and edit the entirety of The Father in between the nominations and awards.

Things are grim in the world of film awards. First Cow was predictably yet heartbreakingly shafted. Expert prognosticators were left holding their visions of an America gripped by MankMania in their hands after David Fincher’s latest came and went without fanfare. The film was then bestowed 10 Oscar nominations, but alas, the ears of the nation had already turned away. Despite their best efforts, the show’s producers were unable to avoid setting another record for consecutive years without Bob Hope hosting. Nomadland, a perfectly good movie, is the most unstoppable lock to win Best Picture in quite some time, which will bring the entire enterprise to a close marked by a chorus of a million awed “yeah, ok”s. The film’s director, Chloe Zhao, will then go on to direct a Marvel movie, one of which is due to win 7 of these, including Best Picture, in at most three years.

This is all coming, of course, a year after Parasite‘s big win, a moment that renewed my faith in both the Oscars and the film industry as a whole. For one brief second, it felt like there was some hope to be had in breaking free from Hollywood’s total immersion in its own ass, in pushing people’s boundaries in their consumption of art. Then the pandemic happened, the studios decided that this was their big chance to kill movie theaters once and for all, and we were left with a Best Picture crop that, despite some really great films and no flat-out bad ones, manages to feel completely unremarkable. This is only partially a failure caused by the pandemic, to be clear, watching these films at home isn’t projecting any sort of lack of creativity onto them that isn’t actually there. I should’ve seen it coming. It’s useless to have hope in these sorts of things, it’s always one step forward and two steps back. Just look at a few years ago– The Shape of Water winning was a landmark moment for fish-human love advocates across the world, and it was followed up by Green Book, a movie that has all of zero scenes of fish-human intercourse, and is also bad. That’s what’s so uninteresting about this year: Nomadland inevitably winning won’t bring the same glee as Parasite, or even draw the same revulsion as Green Book. And it certainly won’t be nearly as hilarious as The Shape of Water, which is still useful as joke fodder over three years later. And, come Sunday night, it will happen, and the gilded list of films designated immortal by an arbitrary jury will grow by one, and we will forget about almost everything else nominated. And goddammit, I will be watching. After everything we’ve all been through in the last year, having something as dependable as whining about the Oscars to fall back on is unspeakably comforting. Having an exercise as futile and useless as scientifically parsing the winners in advance to rely on is a light in darkness. Is this insane? Is this hopeless Stockholm Syndrome level devotion to an actively harmful institution? You bet it is. In fact, I think I would advise anyone not as terminally sunk into it as I am to break free while you can. Apichatpong Weerasethakul’s 2010 masterpiece Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives is available to rent for just $3.99 on itunes. There is nothing stopping you from watching it while the Oscars are happening. There is no rule against this. But for my fellow obsessives, those of us who are going to let these things matter to us no matter how much we know they’re worthless, the Oscars loom. Awards will be given out, and the process of reacting way too much to their eventual results is already underway. Let’s dive in–

Best Picture

Nomadland' Scores Seven Nominations From Chicago Film Critics - Variety

The nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

What will win: If you were thinking of putting money on this award, and you decided to bet on something other than Nomadland, you would genuinely be better off just setting that money on fire. That way, at least you don’t have any anticipation or false hope, and you end up with the same result.

What should win: Well, let’s see. The best movie of the year is David Byrne’s American Utopia, which is a filmed production of a Broadway concert and as such is probably ineligible. The best narrative film of the year is First Cow, but let’s be real here, the Academy is just not going to go for a Kelly Reichardt movie, with this or probably any award. The second best narrative film of the year is I’m Thinking of Ending Things, and ditto that for Charlie Kaufman. The best movie that could’ve conceivably been nominated is Da 5 Bloods, which was not nominated, because the Academy hates Spike Lee more than either Reichardt or Kaufman, and he’s actually won one of these. The best nominated film is either Minari or Sound of Metal. I guess Minari should probably win. Great movie. But, obviously, would not have been my very first choice.

Of note: With Minari (Steven Yeun) and Promising Young Woman (Sam Richardson) both nominated, 20% of this year’s Best Picture lineup consists of films featuring cast members of I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson, although Robinson himself is not in any of the nominees. Next year.

Best Director

Nomadland' Review: A Tale of Roaming and Yearning - WSJ

The nominees: Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman, David Fincher – Mank, Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round, Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Who will win: This is Zhao’s award for the same reasons BP is Nomadland‘s. Awards bodies simply can’t seem to get enough of the movie. And while I would’ve made a different pick (see below), I can’t deny that Zhao will be a really great winner here. The movie is very good, yeah, but also women haven’t won this award nearly enough throughout the course of its history, nor have Asians. To give it to an Asian woman for a good movie is something I can’t possibly complain about.

Who should win: In a perfect world, a world where either Hong Sang-soo or Claire Denis has won this in every one of the last twenty years, I would not give this to Zhao. In that scenario, it would have to be Reichardt for First Cow (note: I still haven’t been able to see The Woman Who Ran. It could still be Hong). Of the nominees, though, it gets interesting. Minari is, as I’ve established, outstanding, and I would love to give it to Chung, but I actually think I’m going Vinterberg here. He got in on what I like to call the Cold War nomination, a phenomenon where slot five has gone to a foreign language film the Academy likes a lot for no discernible reason. Another Round is outstanding, and felt like one of the most completely directed films of the year as well. The film feels forceful in Vinterberg’s choices and style, carrying you along on the charisma and vigor its direction imbues it with. Would also be funny to go with Fincher for his most completely nothing movie.

Of note: Only one of these nominees gave us Mads Mikkelsen dancing.

Best Actor

Netflix's Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Reactions Are In, And Chadwick Boseman Is Earning Absolute Raves - CINEMABLEND

The nominees: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins – The Father, Gary Oldman – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari

Who will win: You know, Boseman has been a lock to win here for so long that it feels automatic, but I can’t bring myself to go to 100% with the adulation Hopkins has been getting. I think this’ll still be Boseman, but I’d watch out for the film sensation of awards season… uh… The Father.

Who should win: This is a super strong category. Boseman, if indeed he wins, will deserve it for reasons that have nothing to do with his tragic death, the performance is just that good. I’ll watch The Father tomorrow, but I imagine Hopkins is just ridiculously great. Oldman is fine, don’t know what he’s doing here though. Of the nominees, Yeun or Ahmed should win in my opinion. I’m saying Ahmed. It’s a masterpiece of a performance– playing someone losing their hearing is one thing, but to do it in a way that so evades everything usually showy about portraying a disability is astounding. This isn’t a role demanding plaudits, it’s just a beautiful, sad, perfect piece of acting. All of that being said, this category is rendered completely invalid by the exclusion of Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods, the single best performance in anything this year, across any category. Also would’ve liked to see Mikkelsen get in for Another Round. The dancing!

Of note: I already used my I Think You Should Leave note for Yeun, huh? Crap. Ok, let’s see. Gary Oldman became the first ever person nominated for playing Mank. I guess that’s interesting. Would be great if Mank became one of those characters who was just an inexplicable Oscar magnet, like the joker. I’m rolling on saying “Mank” now, this is gonna get out of hand. I liked the part in Mank where Josef von Sternberg showed up for like three seconds just so there could be a line about how he was Josef von Sternberg so you know that Fincher knows who Josef von Sternberg is. Calm down, man, we’ve all seen Shanghai Express. Would’ve been amazing if he had just had Mank launch into a bunch of terrible von Sternberg puns just to really sell this to the film nerds in the audience. Like just an awful series of “Ah, Dishonored to meet you, wink wink nudge nudge” and stuff like that. I think I would’ve actively campaigned for it for Best Picture.

Best Actress

Hail, Caesar! (2016) – Creative Criticism

The nominees: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand – Nomadland, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Who will win: Ahahahahaha so yeah about that. This could literally go any one of four ways. Davis, Day, McDormand, and Mulligan have all won exactly one of the four major precursors (poor Vanessa Kirby). Nobody has any sort of visible advantage over any of the others (again, excluding Kirby). If I had to guess, I think I’d say Mulligan. Just feels like the performance they’d go for. But I still can’t shake the thought that Davis has to win this. But also they love Nomadland, maybe the hype crosses into this category and McDormand wins it. And Andra Day definitely does keep looming in my mind as a legitimate threat, despite the fact that she felt like the fifth one in here. I don’t know. Gun to my head, Mulligan, but I would not feel remotely confident about it.

Who should win: Jessie Buckley in I’m Thinking of Ending Things can still take this in the write-ins. There’s too much division. It’s anyone’s game. The right thing can still be done. In case that doesn’t pan out and it goes to one of the nominees, it’d probably be Davis in my opinion. Ma Rainey as a movie is pretty much fine, but as an acting showcase it’s the best thing I’ve seen all year. Mulligan would also be a very good winner. She’s been uniformly great in films that are beneath her for a decade now, and was unambiguously so in a film I was otherwise very split on in Promising Young Woman.

Of note: A Mulligan win would, I believe, be the first by an actor for a performance featuring a scene of singing Paris Hilton in a pharmacy. A similar scene was left on the cutting room floor of Olivia de Havilland in The Heiress, opening the door for Mulligan to make some history.

Ok I used The Heiress there completely at random and the more I’m thinking about it the more similarities I’m finding between The Heiress and Promising Young Woman. Heiress is better though. Watch The Heiress, everyone.

Best Supporting Actor

Daniel Kaluuya doesn't remember filming 'Judas and the Black Messiah' scene

The nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami…, Paul Raci, Sound of Metal, Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Who will win: Kaluuya. And he’ll deserve it. He fully embodies Fred Hampton. He’s impossible to take your eyes off of whenever he’s on screen. And he cements himself as possibly the best actor currently working. My only quibble, and I’ll say a bit more on this in a minute, is that it’s not really a true supporting performance.

Who should win: A rare one in that my two favorite entries in this category this year are nominated. Kaluuya, as I already said, is unreal, but I think I’d call Paul Raci in Sound of Metal my favorite performance of the year, or at least second to Delroy Lindo. His last scene in the film brought me this close to sobbing, and I can’t say that about anyone else this year. Also, the only one in this category who actually gives a supporting performance as opposed to a prominent ensemble member or a straight up lead role that benefitted by the most baffling successful attempt at category fraud I’ve ever seen (look, Stanfield is great in Judas but how in the world is Jesse Plemons now apparently the lead in that movie?).

Of note: I’d like to use this section to highlight the following actual supporting actor performances of 2020 that I feel are deserving of some recognition:

  • David Thewlis, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
  • Alan Kim, Minari
  • Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
  • Bill Murray, On the Rocks
  • Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Colman Domingo, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Toby Jones, First Cow
  • David Strathairn, Nomadland
  • Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
  • Arliss Howard, Mank (the best part of this movie, you cannot convince me otherwise)

Best Supporting Actress

Minari' Actress Yuh-Jung Youn: 'Stressful' to Be Nominated at Oscars

The nominees: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman – The Father, Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Who will win: It’s starting to look like this is Youn’s, although it’s definitely not a sure thing. This could finally be Close’s year (if it ever will be). I definitely think that you can’t count Bakalova out yet. Seyfried was a big frontrunner for a while but has seemingly disappeared, I have to wonder if that was simply a tactical retreat in preparation for a late strike. I’m very tired.

Who should win: Youn or Bakalova, probably Youn. As the foul-mouthed grandmother in Minari, she makes the film, as well as becomes the first Hong Sang-soo regular to receive an Oscar nomination, beginning the path to Kim Min-hee dominating this category every year for the foreseeable future, as she should. Would also be extremely funny if Colman beat Close again. This is the second time I’ve talked about Hong Sang-soo in this post, which I think is interesting.

Of note: If Seyfried manages to pull this off, this would be the second straight year where this award has gone to a Twin Peaks: The Return cast member.

Best Original Screenplay

Review: 'Promising Young Woman' falters due to predictability

The nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Who will win: Promising Young Woman. So funny to me that Trial of the Chicago 7, a movie literally designed to win this award in particular, is not going to win.

Who should win: Judas, I think. I’ve talked about Sound of Metal and Minari in this post a lot, but I think writing-wise, Judas beats both of them. Like I said, I was split on Promising Young Woman. There was a lot of stuff I liked about it, but I did not think that the writing was one of these. Odd call I think. Not a ton to say about this one. It’s a screenplay one. Debated even doing it.

Of note: Jeremy Strong and his egg in Trial of the Chicago 7 is of note I think. Haven’t talked about that movie a lot. This might be my only chance.

The 'Trial of the Chicago 7' Character Rankings - The Ringer

Best Adapted Screenplay

It's an utter myth': how Nomadland exposes the cult of the western | Nomadland | The Guardian

The nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami…, The White Tiger

Who will win: Nomadland. You know the drill by now.

Who should win: Borat. I mean, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, obviously, but of the nominees it has to be Borat. Don’t care how much of it was improvised. Perfect writing.

Of note: One Night in Miami… got completely killed on nominations in a way I definitely wasn’t expecting. I’m pretty much fine with it just getting in for Odom, screenplay, and song (I guess, the day I start paying attention to the songs is not a day that will come willingly), but I do want to plug Odom singing A Change is Gonna Come to close out the film, which is a completely phenomenal scene.

Best Cinematography

Nomadland': Chloé Zhao and crew reveal how they made one of the year's best films - CNN Style

The nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

What will win: Take a wild guess.

What should win: Probably Nomadland. Above anything else, it looks unbelievable. Also really loved how Judas and the Black Messiah looked, glad it got in. I liked Mank‘s weird anachronistic black-and-white digital thing too, I know that was contentious but I felt it worked well. King of Digital David Fincher stays winning. Best cinematography of the year is either First Cow or Da 5 Bloods though.

Of note: Did you know that Mank was shot in black and white because it’s set in the 1940s, and most films in the 1940s were in black and white? Director David Fincher did this an homage. Also Orson Welles never surpassed Citizen Kane, we must always remember that. He was nothing without the studio system behind him. The studio system is good. It is nurturing. It is the glue that keeps the film industry, and society as a whole, together. Welles flew too close to the sun and never made another film agai- no what are you doing don’t look up The Lady From Shanghai no please just please accept the narrative that he peaked with Kane oh no oh God

Best Original Score

Soul' Review: Another Masterpiece From the Minds Behind 'Inside Out' - Variety

The nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul

Who will win: Trent Reznor is about to receive an Oscar for his work on a Pixar movie. The entire year in movies will be worth it for this fact.

Who should win: Like I said, I can’t complain about Reznor taking it for Soul, especially because it is a great score. This is also the only recognition Da 5 Bloods got, and the ever-brilliant Terence Blanchard deserves more recognition. However, for the second straight year, the best score comes courtesy of Emile Mosseri, who might be my favorite working film composer not named Angelo Badalamenti. His work on Minari is idiosyncratic and wonderful in a way that echoes his stunning soundscape for last year’s The Last Black Man in San Francisco, an utterly brilliant piece of work that I’m thrilled was nominated.

Of note: Trent Reznor and musical partner Atticus Ross received two of the five nods this year, for Soul and Mank. Their score for the former is, like I said, going to win, but their work on the latter is equally intricate and fascinating, making that film far more interesting than it could’ve been. Anyway, my notable fact here is once again that the guy who wrote Closer not only did the score for a Pixar movie, but did it so well that he’s gonna win an Oscar for it. It’s just too funny to me.

These have been all the categories I can speak remotely intelligently on, and even a few on which I can’t. I can give you my strongest guarantee that everything I have said in here will turn out correct. Enjoy the Oscars, everyone. Or, again, Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives, if you want the exact opposite experience in both vibes and quality.

93rd Academy Awards Preview: Here’s How Paul Raci Can Still Win

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH oh MAN I cannot believe I decided to write this. Oh man. Ok. Upcoming Oscars. Let’s see. Where to start? I guess by clarifying some things. The 2021 Oscars are scheduled for April 25th, with nominations being announced March 15th and the eligibility window for film releases ends on February 28th. In a normal world, They’d probably be this upcoming Sunday. But, as we all know, we are not living in a normal world: Parasite’s win last year was so seismic that they just decided to stop making movies, and the Oscars had to adjust accordingly. Or something.

Anyway, they’re happening. Nobody has any idea what’s going on. Half of the contending movies are uninteresting, the other half are unavailable to the general public. In some ways, it does kind of feel like we’re living in a normal world. So I figured I’d try to do the Oscar preview again. Last season I covered 33 movies, 20 of which were nominated for at least one Oscar. The majority of the misses came in the latter portion of the preview, indicating stuff that were probably longshots to begin with. Some notable predictions, keeping in mind that this was in September, before we had any sense of how the season was shaping up–

The Two Popes was the biggest BP contender: This did not hit. Got in for actor, though.

Parasite was something to watch: A bit, yeah!

Cats was legit: Not so much.

On Jojo Rabbit- “The consensus emerging is that it contains a great use of a David Bowie song”: OH GOD. Oh god. This is genuinely worse than the last one. Thanks, movie, for ruining that song for me.

“I left at least one massive contender off that nobody sees coming”: Looks like… no, actually? I included all nine eventual BP nominees. I only missed one acting nominee (Richard Jewell) and one screenplay nominee (Knives Out). The only multi-nominees I missed were Honeyland (with 2) and, uh… Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker? Three Oscar nominations? That doesn’t sound right. I’m assuming that’s a mistake.

So now, much closer to the actual awards, and with some relevant precursor nominations already announced, hopefully this’ll be pretty accurate. Let’s dive in–

Tier 1- Best Picture Potpourri

The group of films that are in the conversation for Best Picture nominations numbers 13 entries. These are those films:

Nomadland– dir. Chloe Zhao

Image result for nomadland

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Frances McDormand), Best Supporting Actor (David Strathairn), Best Cinematography. A lot. Pretty much everything.

Right now Best Picture looks like a two horse race, with Nomadland seeming like a slight favorite. It won the Golden Lion at Venice, which has somehow become a super relevant indicator of awards success, and more importantly the TIFF people’s choice award, which has been a super relevant indicator of awards success. This is the one to beat, although it still has one major hurdle to clear– it’s not clear how much the public is gonna like it. Nomadland hits VOD and Hulu on February 26th, which will be the first time it can be seen by people who didn’t buy a ticket to a virtual film festival or risk going to a theater. Granted, the non-critic people who have done those things seem to be head over heels for it, but that doesn’t necessarily reflect how it’ll play with a more casual subset of the moviegoing community. Also, public reaction isn’t necessarily required for Academy reaction (how many people knew Shape of Water as anything other than the fishman sex movie?).

The Trial of the Chicago 7– dir. Aaron Sorkin

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen), maybe a handful of other acting nods depending on how much they like it.

And here’s the other half of Best Picture. Sorkin’s latest is undeniably Oscar bait: a dozen middle-to-big-name actors, historical basis, and, most importantly, politically uninflammatory. Chicago 7 treads much of the same ground as Da 5 Bloods and, as I understand the conceit of Judas and the Black Messiah, that film as well, but it manages to do so while ultimately embodying a message of timidity and unearned institutional respect. It positions itself as a Movie of the Moment while not actually making any sort of controversial stand that would earn it this title. Think Green Book, although not nearly as politically disastrous as that film. As well as a lot better– the film is well-made, entertaining, and very well-acted. There would be a lot worse movies to have won Best Picture, and I’m not saying it’s entirely morally worthless. But it would be the wrong winner for this moment in time. Which is exactly why it feels like it’ll win.

Minari– dir. Lee Isaac Chung

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Steven Yeun), Best Supporting Actor (Youn Yuh-jung)

Sundance favorite Minari feels like it’s been riding a wave of hype from way beyond when Oscar hits usually debut, which is because it is. In a normal year, I doubt Minari has the staying power post-Sundance it does, but instead no new movies were released for months, everyone lost their sense of time, and the Minari buzz coasted to Oscar season in suspended animation. I haven’t yet seen the film, debuting on VOD later this month, but it presents some absolutely massive possibilities for my personal taste: if Steven Yeun’s acclaimed performance nets a nod, I believe he would become the first person to appear on I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson to be nominated for an Oscar. And if Youn Yuh-jung gets in, I’m pretty much positive she’d be the first regular Hong Sang-soo collaborator with an Oscar nod (appearing in Hill of Freedom, In Another Country, Ha Ha Ha, List, and Right Now, Wrong Then). For those of us with this very peculiar intersection of interests, this is a massive moment. Anyway, I don’t know exactly what I was talking about. Minari. Could do well.

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom– dir. George C. Wolfe

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Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Chadwick Boseman), Best Actress (Viola Davis), Best Supporting Actor (Glynn Turman), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Production Design, etc. This one could lead in nominations I think.

The loss of Chadwick Boseman still doesn’t feel real. He was an eternally vital talent whose stardom felt like it was just taking off. I remember watching the trailer for Da 5 Bloods and getting excited about him getting roles this complex and interesting. It’s heartbreaking. It feels callous to pivot right into “he feels like a lock for a posthumous Oscar win”. He is, probably the only acting winner who can be seen as a shoo-in right now, but it really feels insignificant. From the critical consensus, it feels like he would’ve been even without the Oscars’ predilection for posthumous awards, because of course he would’ve.

By the nature of the exercise, I have to talk about the rest of the film– Davis seems like she’s in a race with Carey Mulligan for Best Actress, with Frances McDormand on the outside but with a solid shot. The film feels like an easy sell in the below-the-line categories, and Netflix will push it hard in all likelihood.

Da 5 Bloods– dir. Spike Lee

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Delroy Lindo), Best Supporting Actor (Chadwick Boseman), Best Cinematography, Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Score

Lindo is the one to watch here– he dominated the early hype of the film upon release, looking like a lock for an actor nod, but has missed some critical precursors and isn’t exactly a sure thing at this point. Which is a shame. He delivered maybe the best performance of the year, and has been phenomenal in overlooked roles for decades. I also have a bad feeling about the film itself. I feel like, despite the fact that it looks good for BP, it has the making of something that could get snubbed on nomination day and upset everyone. Which, again, would be a shame. It’s one of the year’s best, and a singular vision in a year that needs them. Maybe the safest bet here is, again, Boseman, whose role as a prematurely killed Vietnam squad leader has taken on an eerie layer of resonance since his death.

Sound of Metal– dir. Darius Marder

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Actor (Riz Ahmed), Best Supporting Actor (Paul Raci), Best Sound

Here’s my favorite. So far, of the movies this year that look like legit Oscar players, this is the one I’m pulling for the most. Unfortunately, it does look like a bit of an underdog. It’s not exactly the kind of thing they usually go for (it’s much better ayyyy). The story of a drummer who finds out he’s going deaf, it’s quietly devastating beyond the obvious literal sense. Ahmed has done well enough so far that I’m feeling pretty good about his chances at a well-deserved nomination. And it’s starting to look like it’ll get in for Picture, too, even if it has no chance in hell of winning. My chief concern here is Paul Raci, whose supporting turn as the head of a deaf community brought me nearly to tears multiple times and gave me the investment in awards season I always hate having. He’s missed the big precursors so far, which is obviously not a good sign. He’s still a possibility, I guess, but things are looking bleak.

Promising Young Woman– dir. Emerald Fennell

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Carey Mulligan), Best Original Screenplay

The range of reactions to this one has been interesting. It could still miss BP, it could still be a major enough contender to score a Director nod. The praise for Mulligan has been universal, though, and right now if I were betting on it (hmmmm… maybe I should do that) I think I would take her as the Best Actress winner. Outside of her, however, there’s uncertainty. I’m projecting it to make the BP lineup, which feels wild– it was highly anticipated at Sundance, and received kind of a tepid reaction before exploding in the fall. If nothing else, this is one of the weirdest narratives of the season.

One Night in Miami– dir. Regina King

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Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor (Leslie Odom Jr., Eli Goree), Best Actor (Kingsley Ben-Adir)

There’s a subset of people who really like this one’s chances. I’ve seen some people say it could win the whole thing. I think that it will not. It’s probably a BP nomination lock, and it’s starting to look like Odom is a sure thing to get in. And I guess there’s a world where this really plays– Goree gets in and gives it multiple Supporting Actor nominations, and King gets in for Director. But I feel like a more realistic best case scenario includes BP/Odom plus a lead actor nod for Ben-Adir’s terrific work as Malcolm X, although I’m struggling to see where he gets in. Side note– I know I’ve made it clear that I’m all in on Paul Raci, but I wouldn’t be upset about Odom pulling off the supporting actor win. He’s just a fantastic performer, and he steals this movie with a climactic performance of Sam Cooke’s “A Change is Gonna Come” that completely brings down the house with an energy that brings the film to a new level.

The Father– dir. Florian Zeller

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Anthony Hopkins), Best Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman)

As many have pointed out, this movie may not actually exist. Look at the poster–

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Psy-op. But that hasn’t stopped the Oscars in the past, and if you think goddamn Anthony Hopkins is missing a nod for a movie in which he plays a man with dementia, you are mistaken.

Mank– dir. David Fincher

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Gary Oldman), Best Supporting Actress (Amanda Seyfried), Best Cinematography, Best Score, Best Screenplay (I think original, but like… the Kael article was a presence here, was it not?)

MANK! A-AAAAAA! It’s underwhelming! (Do doo doo do). Mank is unfortunately Oscar-bait-y for the great David Fincher, which means it will undeniably have more success than any of his many masterpieces (I’ll always remember you, Gone Girl, even if the HOLLYWOOD ELITE won’t). It’s a movie about moviemaking that climaxes with a blatant appeal to the Sanctity of the Academy as part of a larger kneecapping of maybe the greatest director in American history. It’s not great. It’s worth noting that all ravaging aside, I did kinda like Mank. I thought the digital B&W really worked, which is good because it is going to win for Cinematography. I was down for the direction Oldman went in with his lead performance, which is good because it’ll soften the pain of him inevitably knocking Lindo out of lead actor. Seyfried is obviously tremendous, although she seems to have lost her frontrunner status in Supporting Actress with a shocking SAG miss. Anyway, justice for Orson Welles.

Judas and the Black Messiah– dir. Shaka King

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Actor (Lakeith Stanfield), Best Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya), Best Supporting Actress (Dominique Fishback)

This drops on HBO Max tomorrow, and you better believe I will be watching it the day of. This isn’t a lock for BP, but it could absolutely change that if the public reaction mirrors the critical reaction. Kaluuya, because there apparently is some benevolence in the world, might be the favorite to win Supporting Actor and win his first Oscar. This, of course, should be the second or third win for one of the most consistently incredible actors of the current generation– his Get Out role or DDL in Phantom Thread should’ve taken best actor in 2017, and in my mind there’s no denying that his turn in Widows in 2018 was the best male supporting performance of that year (he was not nominated). Stanfield is also overdue for this kind of recognition after being reliably great in an astonishing variety of roles over the last few years. However, this will probably get shut out in favor of the movie that completely abandons the Black Panthers after they’re no longer convenient for the plot (thought you were out of the woods for criticism, Sorkin?)

News of the World– dir. Paul Greengrass

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Actor (Tom Hanks), Best Supporting Actress (Helena Zengel)

I have seen exactly zero rapturous praise or reactions above “yeah this is basically fine” for News of the World, a movie that will receive 5+ Academy Award nominations at a bare minimum. Granted, I may not be looking super hard, but it doesn’t seem like this movie has inspired enough passion in people to inspire the passion in me to expend energy on that. I feel confident in saying that it’ll grab a BP slot, although Hanks probably misses (as he did for his last Greengrass collaboration, Captain Phillips). I think that the biggest lock here might be 12-year-old Helena Zengel. Zero people will remember this in two (2) calendar years.

Soul– dir. Pete Docter

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Animated Feature, Best Original Score

This was always kinda the longshot of the BP group, and it hasn’t had the precursor success it would’ve needed to break into the conversation. I almost moved it down a tier. But it’s a weird year, and Soul has been the most acclaimed Pixar since Inside Out. It could happen.

More importantly, Trent Reznor is absolutely gonna win an Oscar for a Pixar movie, which is just hilarious to me.

Tier 2- Acting!

Movies that almost certainly won’t be in the BP conversation, but feel like they’ll get in for acting categories, or screenplays or techs. Don’t know why I called it “Acting!”, actually. Just felt snappy. I stand by it.

Hillbilly Elegy– dir. Ron Howard

Awards contending for: Best Actress (Amy Adams), Best Supporting Actress (Glenn Close), Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Beyond the initial mass clowning and critical revulsion on this one, it’s managed to worm its way back into the two acting categories everyone thought it’d win. Close especially seems like she has a shot at winning. I guess this could still get in for BP if the Academy likes it enough. Critical love isn’t always necessary for that kind of success. The best comparison I can think of is Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, although for comparison that earned a (very bad!) Rotten Tomatoes score of 46, while this boasts an abysmal 26. It’s an uphill climb.

On the Rocks– dir. Sofia Coppola

Awards contending for: Best Supporting Actor (Bill Murray), Best Original Screenplay

I would like it on the record that On the Rocks is delightful, far better than a number of movies certain to land Best Picture nominations, and featuring a totally stunning lead performance from Rashida Jones that has for some reason completely evaded any year-end-best-of conversation. I guess I’ll settle for the above two major nominations, which it seems like it’ll get. Murray is great, perfect late-career performance that the Oscars tend to go for.

Another Round– dir. Thomas Vinterberg

Awards contending for: Best International Film, Best Actor (Mads Mikkelsen)

Here’s another favorite. This feels like a lock for International Film, but the Actor nod might be wishful thinking on my part at this point. Mikkelsen gives one of the year’s best performances, and it seems like he’s being boxed out of a crowded category. Another Round‘s best case scenario is something like Pain and Glory got last year, with International and Actor nods, and I’d love to see it, but I’m not sure how likely it is.

The Life Ahead– dir. Edoardo Ponti

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Awards contending for: Best International Film, Best Actress (Sophia Loren)

This film’s entire Oscar narrative can be summed up as follows: Yup. Sophia Loren.

Ammonite– dir. Francis Lee

Awards contending for: Best Actress (Kate Winslet), Best Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan)

Ammonite fell off after a reserved critical response, and as such it’s gone from potential BP/Acting winner to potential Acting nominee. Could also get in for some techs, Score, Cinematography, and Costume Design all feel like possibilities.

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm– dir. Jason Woliner

Awards contending for: Best Supporting Actress (Maria Bakalova), Best Original Song (“Wuhan Flu”)

This deserves to win both of these, and it stands a legitimate outside chance at getting both nods. If that comes to pass, it will bring a total of three Oscar nominations to the Borat franchise, which is a real thing I just typed.

Pieces of a Woman– dir. Kornel Mundruczo

Awards contending for: Best Actress (Vanessa Kirby)

Kirby is guaranteed a nod for this movie, and for like a month there it looked like she might be the favorite. She’s fallen off a bit in that regard, but she looks like she’ll pretty much coast to inclusion at least. Nothing else of any real importance here.

Tier 3- Hell if I Know

Two early 2021 releases with negative receptions that could nonetheless break really favorably. I don’t think either of these will get in for BP, but they very well may get in for other things, and hey, you never know. Anyway–

The Little Things– dir. John Lee Hancock

Awards contending for: Best Supporting Actor (Jared Leto), Best Original Score

Cormac McCarthy’s Blood Meridian, possibly the greatest novel ever written, closes with the following lines, referring to undeniably the greatest villain ever written–

“He never sleeps. He says that he will never die. He dances in light and shadow and he is a great favorite. He never sleeps, the judge. He is dancing, dancing. He says that he will never die.”

That’s how I feel about Jared Leto.

Malcolm and Marie– dir. Sam Levinson

Awards contending for: Anything ranging from “Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (John David Washington), Best Actress (Zendaya), Best Cinematography, Best Original Screenplay” to “The razzie for worst picture. Possibly both?

I don’t want to get into this one. The important thing to know is that some people love it, some people hate it, and everyone is very angry about it. I have no doubt that when I inevitably watch it, I will fall into one of these camps. It has ignited comparisons to John Cassavetes that I guarantee you it does not earn, and a subsequent discourse around this. Anyway stream Minnie and Moskowitz.

Tier 4- Odds, Ends, and Documentaries

Some stuff that could fill in the techs/below the line awards. Plus, of course, docs. Buncha docs.

Welcome to Chechnya– dir. David France

Awards contending for: Best Documentary, Best Visual Effects

Here’s a weird one. This was shortlisted for both awards, and could ultimately pull a similar achievement to Honeyland last year by getting multiple nods as a documentary. I’m not missing that again. I’ve learned my lesson.

Tenet– dir. Christopher Nolan

Awards contending for: Probably, like, sound and editing and VFX and stuff like that

Tenet holds the distinction of being the only movie released in 2020. Therefore you’d think it’d be doing a lot better, huh?

Time– dir. Garrett Bradley

Awards contending for: Best Documentary

This is the most acclaimed doc of the year, currently the favorite to win the award. However, based on the utterly hilarious history of the Best Documentary category in recent years, those exact qualities make me 100% certain it will not be nominated. See: Won’t You Be My Neighbor and Apollo 11.

Other Docs

Awards contending for: Best animated short, oddly

Probably not a lot to write about the various other documentaries that are contending for slots. So I’m just going to list a few:

Dick Johnson is Dead

Collective

Gunda

Boys State

MLK/FBI

All In: The Fight For Democracy (I haven’t heard the buzz around this that I have for the others, but come on. Something with that title is gonna get in.)

Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)– dir. Cathy Yan

Awards contending for: Best Makeup and Hair, Best Visual Effects

A rare 2020 blockbuster, this is obviously gonna contend for VFX, and was also shortlisted for Makeup and Hair. I could’ve put the “awards contending for” section twice.

The Midnight Sky– dir. George Clooney

Awards contending for: all I have at this point for the blurbs is just to list the stuff it was shortlisted for, so I’m cutting this section effective immediately.

The Midnight Sky was shortlisted for Best Score and Best Visual Effects. Ah. So much better to do it like this. Unfortunately, I think I am out of movies. That’s for the best, I think.

Anyway, in conclusion, the Oscars are coming. God, there’s two more whole months of this.

I close by asking you to watch Sound of Metal, please. Also my favorite movie of 2020, David Byrne’s American Utopia, which I could not find a place for here because it’s not exactly the textbook definition of a “movie”. WHERE’S MY “BEST FILMED BROADWAY PRODUCTION” CATEGORY, AMPAS? Lmao it would still lose that. Hamilton and such. The Oscars are the worst, everyone. I eagerly await their arrival.

92nd Academy Awards: The Best Picture Nominees, Ranked

We’re here. Today, February 9th, is the day of the 92nd Academy Awards, which is always the best day of the year… until they start announcing the winners. But it’s always fun, in the run-up to the awards, to hope that the movie you’re rooting for has a chance. As I did last year, I watched all the nominees for Best Picture prior to the ceremony for the sake of completion. Having watched some bona fide masterpieces and sat through some utter garbage, I feel as though the disparity between potential victors is vast, enough that I feel the need to categorize the nominees into sections to illustrate the quality gap. But remember, whatever happens, it’s almost guaranteed to be a huge disappointment. So sit back, relax, and get furious at the outcome of the show.

The Nominees

Unforgivable Trash

This category may strike you as particularly harsh, but the films that inhabit it are fully deserving of this dubious honor. In a year with such tremendous works of art at the top of this category, it’s sad and yet poetic that there’s this level of garbage littering the bottom of the barrel. Anyway, here’s two movies that everyone loves!

9- Joker (dir. Todd Phillips)

BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEECCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. Joker has to be the worst movie to ever amass this number of Oscar nominations. With 11 nods handed to this verifiable piece of trash, the success of Joker signals an unmistakable death knell for the film industry, one where intentionally derivative faux-inflammatory trash earns double digit Oscar nomination totals and a billion dollars at the box office while original masterpieces like Uncut Gems and Us get shut out. Joker represents everything wrong with movies today. It pretends as if it has some grand message about society, that it has an actual knowledge of cinematic history, that it’s above its superhero movie brethren. It follows none of this criteria. There’s no message here. Joker doesn’t have the guts to take a side or actually say anything meaningful, it simply tricks its audience into thinking it does by using dark cinematography, a foreboding score, an R rating, and a protest movement name (“Kill the Rich”) that was thought through for 3 seconds. Or maybe that’s giving it too much credit. Joker‘s cinematic knowledge is that it’s seen Taxi Driver like 10 times and didn’t understand it at all. It gleefully rips from that superior film in embarrassing fashion, even making a hamfisted and cringe-inducing nod to the “You talkin’ to me?” scene. It also drags Brian De Palma’s Blow Out into it via a theater marquee at the end, which depresses me to no end as not one, but two perfect films are now implicated in this train wreck. Worst of all, it pretends to be above its fellow superhero movies, yet never misses a chance to shoehorn in an unnecessary bit of fan service lore. A dumpster fire.

8- Jojo Rabbit (dir. Taika Waititi)

Oh, man. I may have put this above Joker, but it could really go either way. I’ve never seen a movie, not Green Book, not Crash, that has made me feel quite as gross as Jojo Rabbit. It’s technically fine, and Waititi is a very funny person, but that’s the problem. Waititi’s typical goofiness is not a fit for the material, especially as it starts descending into more serious territory. Jojo Rabbit takes a horrifying view of the atrocities at its center, which is that the perpetrators were victims as well. Sam Rockwell’s gay nazi is shown to be a sympathetic character because he’s gay and he helps Jojo avoid nazi persecution in one scene, but he’s still a nazi, one who enthusiastically and effectively serves a cause that seeks to destroy him and people like him. There is no possible sympathy for this character. Nor is there any for the German people who sat and watched the nazis take over, who the movie would like you to believe are the ones who truly suffered here. There’s a scene towards the end where “innocent” German citizens are herded into a losing battle, and you almost feel sorry for them. But it’s hard not to remember that these are people who watched Hitler rise to power and cheered him on. Then there’s the issue of the Jewish character (singular). Thomasin McKenzie’s Elsa, a Jewish girl who Jojo’s mother is hiding, is used strictly as a tool for Jojo to better himself as a person. She endures endless abuse at his hands, and just takes it, in the name of Jojo’s learning experience. It’s deeply depressing to watch this character just accept subservience so as to help a literal nazi. All around, Jojo Rabbit goes deeply wrong and ends up as a deeply dangerous take on the holocaust. Plus, the middle is boring. It lulls after the initial shock and ill-advised humor (by the way, the one good thing I can say for this movie is that some of the humor is good. The four testicles joke? Actually works. The rest of the film? Nope), and becomes kind of unwatchable. I can’t understand why this movie is so beloved. Moonrise Kingdom exists, guys.

It’s Good, I Guess

This category contains 1 film, and it’s one I’m not really sure what to make of. It begins with an hour and a half that is, simply put, bad. Then it recovers with a final hour that’s nothing short of great. so, welcome to the Oscar BP rankings version of purgatory…

7- Ford v. Ferrari (dir. James Mangold)

Like I said, the first half of this is deeply and aggressively Not Good. It drags, it refuses to go into its characters, the performances are weak, it focuses on the wrong stuff. Damon’s usual charisma and Bale’s usual brilliance are stifled. Then the big race starts, and it all starts working. Bale is unleashed in all of his glorious Britishness, Damon’s character becomes eminently watchable, and there’s an hour remaining of cars going really fast and the Home Depot ads guy (I still can’t believe that was him) villain-ing around. It’s cinema. But it takes too long to get there. So what does one do with Ford v. Ferrari? Where does it go? Does it deserve to be ranked with the truly great stuff on the basis of its second half alone? No, but it doesn’t deserve to be lumped in with the above abominations either. The comparison is Vice from last year- by turns insufferable and brilliant, alternating between depicting nothing of value and well done eye-opening stuff. So Ford v. Ferrari gets stranded here, in between the great and the garbage. If you want to have a good time and watch dudes drive around in fast cars, you could do much worse. Just stick it out until it gets there. If you’re looking for 2001: A Space Odyssey, this is not your thing.

Legitimately Great

Fortunately, the majority of this year’s nominees are, as the section header proclaims, legitimately great (or better). These are films that excel and astound, and definitely deserve their place among the nominees, even if they shouldn’t be anywhere near a win considering the kind of stuff that’s above them. Anyway, even if they’re not the best things up for awards tonight, these absolutely deserve your attention.

6- 1917 (dir. Sam Mendes)

While watching Sam Mendes’ (let’s be real here, it’s Roger Deakins’) 1917, you can’t help but feel a visceral reaction to what you’re seeing. The “how did they do that???” moments pile up as the film progresses, the clock ticks, and the tension escalates to an unbearable level. The credits roll and you have goosebumps, and then you leave the theater and someone mentions it 2 days later and you think “Oh yeah, I saw that”. 1917 is maybe the year’s foremost technical stunner, and that makes it a marvel to watch, but you’re left devoid of anything to really hold onto after the movie draws to a close. Now, does that make it a bad or even mediocre film? No, it’s under the “legitimately great” section. Sometimes all you can ask for in a film is a visceral experience that absolutely envelops you, regardless of how much you find yourself thinking about it later. Is it going to win Best Picture? Probably, and the fact that it shouldn’t will likely taint it further in everyone’s memory. But it’s a cool enough movie, and when you have people this talented (Deakins, the absolute GOAT) working at making it as good as it is, that’s enough.

5- Marriage Story (dir. Noah Baumbach)

Marriage Story is a good old-fashioned acting showcase, in which two of the planet’s finest go head to head, with the assistance of Noah Baumbach’s brilliant dialogue. It’s entertaining and emotional, it’s funny and sad, it’s got something for everyone. I’m shocked that, considering how much it feels tailor-made for the Oscars, it isn’t faring better, especially considering the preferential ballot. My bet is that the voting body didn’t like the less-than-glowing critique of Los Angeles offered by the film. Anyway, it’s great. Baumbach fans will find something to love, and it’s a great intro for newcomers. It’s also useful for letting people know just how great Adam Driver is (for those who haven’t seen Inside Llewyn Davis). It’s also gonna finally be Laura Dern’s Oscar. There are no downsides to this movie.

Utter Masterpieces

We now come to the Utter Masterpieces, works of staggering brilliance by modern auteurs that will all almost certainly get snubbed in favor of the 90 billionth war movie since 2010 (which I actually do like quite a bit, it’s just, you know, uggh). So without further ado, here are this year’s “too good for the Oscars” movies.

4- Little Women (dir. Greta Gerwig)

Gerwig’s Little Women is the only film in the BP field to represent one of 2019’s coolest cinematic trends: filmmakers following up their groundbreaking, masterful, cultural-event first features with sophomore efforts that are even better. Jordan Peele’s Us, Robert Eggers’ The Lighthouse, and Ari Aster’s Midsommar all fall into this category with Little Women, with the latter even sharing star Florence Pugh, who is absolutely incredible in both films. However, the real MVP of Little Women is Saoirse Ronan, who is very quickly establishing herself as maybe the best actress of her generation and here delivers possibly her career best. On a less-lighthearted note, it’s the only female directed film in competition, however it didn’t earn a best director nod (an absolute embarrassment). Little Women is spectacularly great from start to finish. Every performance is stellar, it’s technically flawless, and Gerwig’s writing and direction is nothing short of generational. She’s going to be a talent to watch for a very long time, and hopefully her film doesn’t go home empty handed tonight, as it appears it might.

3- The Irishman (dir. Martin Scorsese)

There were some who thought that it couldn’t work. Some delusional souls who thought that the greatest working director couldn’t pull of a 3 and a half hour work propelled by basically-retired actors and unproven visual effects. There are some who still believe it didn’t work. These people are fools. The Irishman is a late career opus from Scorsese, who returns to his known terrain of gangster movies to deliver a stunning meditation on mortality and the pitfalls of violence. It’s decidedly a rebuke of the mob culture people have accused him of glorifying, showing the (very) dark side of the lifestyle in heartbreaking fashion. Anchored by great performance after great performance, this film extracts De Niro’s best work in decades, Pacino’s best work since maybe Godfather II, and Pesci’s best work… ever? Maybe ever. This is all in addition to revelatory turns by Stephen Graham and Ray Romano, of all people. Plus, Anna Paquin sells her silence with a determined passion and her one verbal scene with a devastating deadpan resignation that would be the best single piece of acting in the whole thing, were it not for De Niro’s phone call immediately following it. Oh, and Pacino shouting “SOLIDARITY”. Brilliance. The Irishman ranks among one of the decade’s best films, and yet it feels like a possibility it goes home empty handed tonight. Only time will tell, fittingly enough.

2- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (dir. Quentin Tarantino)

Quentin Tarantino’s latest sits in the top tier of his uniformly terrific body of work, which is no small feat. Neither is bringing out career best work from (presumptive best supporting actor winner) Brad Pitt and (greatest actor of his generation) Leonardo DiCaprio. It’s one of his best scripts, loaded with his typical dialogue and recurring motifs. But it’s a little jarring once you realize what, exactly, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is: it strips away Tarantino’s trademark tension in favor of a more contemplative pace, content to just exist in L.A. circa 1969 with these characters. And that’s what makes the film so great, that atmosphere. Yes, there’s spots of typical Tarantino brilliance: the Spahn Ranch scene, that climax, and of course, the nostalgia-soaked sequence of the neon signs turning on set to the strings version of the Rolling Stones’ “Out of Time”. Let’s play it again, shall we?

Oh yeah. That’s the stuff. Hollywood is so typically Tarantino, yet so far from what he’s previously done, that you can’t help but look on with intense fascination and adoration. It’s mesmerizing and unique, and the Academy could do far worse than honor it tonight.

Parasite

This section contains Parasite.

1- Parasite (dir. Bong Joon-Ho)

There’s no way to sell this short: Parasite is by far the year’s best film, and would slot in over all time masterworks the likes of The Silence of the Lambs, The Apartment, and Annie Hall as one of the top 5 greatest winners in the history of the Best Picture award (the other 4, for reference, are both Godfather movies, Moonlight, and Casablanca). It is a beguiling, unclassifiable masterpiece. It is one of the most successful subtitled films of all time. It is like nothing you’ve ever seen before. If Joker represents the nadir of modern cinema, Parasite represents its apex. There is nothing I can possibly say that hasn’t already been said, nothing I can do that would convey just how great it is. If you’ve seen it, you know I’m right, if you haven’t, go see it. There’s nothing to do know but hope, pray to whatever god decides these things (quite possibly Bong Joon-Ho) that Parasite comes away with the Oscar for Best Picture.

92nd Academy Awards nominations: takeaways

UUUUUUUUGGGGHHHH.

For those of us who love the Oscars, Oscar season is always a complicated time. On one hand, the Oscars are happening, and that’s pretty cool. But on the other hand, the presence of the Oscars serves no real purpose but to remind everyone how much they fundamentally suck. The nominations, revealed today, for this year’s iteration of the awards, are an encapsulation of why the Oscars are so cool and why they suck so.

For this post, I will be diving into the nods for the following categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best International Feature Film, Best Documentary Feature, Best Original Score, Best Production Design, and Best Costume Design. I will be editorializing a disgusting amount, and offering up varying degrees of knowledge based on how much I know about these categories. For each category, I will go through the snubs, the surprises, what should win, and what’s going to win, as well as providing a fact about the category that will inevitably just devolve into me cracking bad jokes. Let’s start off with an overview of the nomination totals.

Leading the pack with 10 each were 1917, The Irishman, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Following those is- what’s that? I forgot something? OH. OH CRAP. THAT’S EDGY CLOWN’S MUSIC.

LIVING IN SOCIETY. The film, which I shall not call by its godforsaken real name for fear of summoning its evil spirit, shall for the duration of this post be Edgy Clown. Edgy Clown’s dominance, scoring 11 nominations, is depressing proof of the idiocy of these awards. Legitimately the worst major studio release of the year scored the most nods, above such masterpieces as Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and The Irishman. Those 11 nods could have gone to more deserving films that were completely shut out such as Uncut Gems (a pipe dream, I’m aware, but man it would’ve been so cool), and Us (not a pipe dream, an infuriating snub, but I’ll get to that later). Anyway, I’ll have plenty of time to complain about Edgy Clown in the actual awards, unfortunately, so let’s get started.

Best Picture

The nominees: 1917, Ford V. Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

The surprises: Nope. Ford V Ferrari is a bit of a surprise, but there’s no real shock here.

The snubs: I mean, Uncut Gems, The Lighthouse, Us, Pain and Glory, any number of masterpieces from this year that never had a shot. In terms of actual strong contenders that didn’t make it, there’s really nothing. Bombshell looked strong for a bit, Knives Out had a day or two where it appeared to maybe have something, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood looked like a lock well before the process even started but fizzled out in the months since it actually got released. There’s no outrageous “what, no If Beale Street Could Talk???” this year because those great ones that didn’t make it never looked like they could.

What should win:

Image result for parasite movie gif

Parasite better win or else. But in the (sadly likely) event that it doesn’t pull it off, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Little Women, and The Irishman are totally valid winners.

What will win: 1917. The other contenders are Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Edgy Clown, which looks like an even stronger contender than before in the wake of its appalling double digit nomination figure, and they could all absolutely win. But 1917 is taking everything. It even managed a surprise screenplay nod, and has been winning the major awards from everywhere. it just feels to me like the winner from here. However, Parasite’s SAG win puts it right in there. It’s gonna be one of those 2. The DGAs will shed more light, although I’m still saying 1917.

Fun Fact: The race is notable for the presence of Parasite, South Korea’s first ever nominee in any category, including foreign language film. It’s also notable for squandering this goodwill by nominating Edgy Clown, which is basically a war crime.

Best Director

The nominees: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Todd Philips (Edgy Clown), Sam Mendes (1917), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)

The surprises: Philips looked vulnerable following his DGA nomination miss, but winds up here anyway over such speculative candidates as Pedro Almodovar, Greta Gerwig, The Safdie Brothers, and Taika Waititi, who got the fifth DGA spot.

The snubs: Those people I listed above, or really any women. This is getting ridiculous.

Who should win: Bong Joon-ho, not only for his magnificent achievement this year, but as sort of an apology for ignoring Okja, the best film of 2017. (Disclaimer: that statement does not represent any sort of rational thought on what is actually the best film of 2017, although it very well may be Okja, it is merely a manifestation of the rush I get from thinking about Okja.

Who will win: Bong or Mendes. Bong could win for the reason Cuaron won it last year: the Academy saying “look, we’re kinda trying, okay?”. Mendes looks good for the technical achievement of 1917.

Fun fact: Women also direct movies.

Best Actor

The Nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time In Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Edgy Clown), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

The Surprises: Pryce and Banderas were in the conversation, but their recognition wasn’t really a guarantee, especially in a field this crowded. Pryce really looked bad based on how his film was doing, but managed to sneak in here.

The Snubs: Adam Sandler. In Uncut Gems, Sandler gives one of the year’s best performances, but gets no Oscar love for it. Robert De Niro for The Irishman falls into this category as well, as does Robert Pattinson for The Lighthouse (although he really didn’t have a shot. Taron Egerton was getting forecasted a lot for Rocketman, so his exclusion comes as something of a surprise.

Who should win: Antonio Banderas. He’s so transcendentally brilliant in Pain and Glory that he should probably win every award in the entire show for good measure. It is, however, hard to pick against DiCaprio giving maybe his career best performance in Hollywood, which is a heavy statement.

Who will win: *sigh*. Phoenix. It’s such a shame that Joaquin Phoenix, one of the greatest actors of his generation, will win his Oscar for his subpar work in Edgy Clown, as opposed to his historically brilliant turns in such films as The Master, Her, You Were Never Really Here, and even Gladiator. To his credit, Phoenix does his best with abysmal material, but the sheer dog crap that is the script sinks the performance to the point of no return.

Fun fact: Pryce becomes the first (tied, I guess) person to be nominated for an Oscar for playing a pope. Which sounds cool until you look up how many cinematic portrayals of popes there have actually been.

Best Actress

The nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)

The surprises: Erivo was kind of a shock, but not really.

The snubs: I’ll get the public uproar over Awkwafina missing for The Farewell out of the way before I launch into the day’s biggest crime: the overlooking of Lupita Nyong’o’s all time great performance(s) in Us. I mean what the hell, guys? Maybe I’m just a dual performance sucker (my favorite Gyllenhaal role is Enemy), but Nyong’o gave the best performance of the whole year (save maybe for Banderas). It just makes no sense.

Who should win: Nyong’o’s snub casts a pall over this race, as does the shoo-in win of Zellweger, but Ronan is truly fantastic and should be recognized.

Who will win: Zellweger. No contest. This is maybe the easiest race to predict, with the possible exception of cinematography. She has all the momentum, all the buzz, and she’s just winning everything. This is gonna be a bloodbath.

Fun fact: With a win in this category or in original song, Cynthia Erivo would become an EGOT winner. This is because the other three necessary awards bodies all recognized her work in Bad Times in The El Royale and just gave her all their awards (Disclaimer: no).

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

The surprises: Bates came out of nowhere. I’ve been looking at these nominees all day and I came to her name just now and still did a double take.

The snubs: Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers has twitter in flames, and comes as a massive shock. She looked like a total lock for at least a nod, and maybe a threat to win.

Who should win: Dern, not only because the performance rules, but also as a lifetime achievement award. Justice for the Blue Velvet snub! Pugh would also absolutely be acceptable. The trend between those two is that they were both better in other things this year (Dern in Little Women and Pugh in Midsommar), but they also ruled in their nominated roles. I’m saying Dern should win, even though Pugh might be a bit better, because Pugh is gonna be a star for a long time, and it just feels like Dern’s year.

Who will win: Dern, for the reasons I listed above. However, I don’t think you can count out Johansson, who pulled off two nods in the same year and as such may get extra attention, nor can you fully discount Margot Robbie or Florence Pugh, who give brilliant yet ignored performances in other movies.

Fun fact: After Bombshell’s critical lashing, the studio switched its Oscar campaigning to Knives Out. Bombshell pulled off more nominations, including this one.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

The surprises: Hopkins, kinda. Again, Two Popes really didn’t look good for these.

The snubs: Song Kang Ho missing for Parasite is a tragedy, as is Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse (seemed less likely, but still).

Who should win: This is tough. Pesci and Pacino are both so, so brilliant in Irishman. Pitt in Hollywood is tremendous. I’m going with Pesci, although I would be ecstatic with a win for either of the other two. It would probably by Pitt, except I think that it’s category fraud.

Who will win: Pitt. He has the momentum, plus he’s the only nominee without an Oscar for acting (he’s won for producing 12 Years a Slave). Pesci and Pacino are his major threats, and coming from the same movie they could split the vote.

Fun fact: I read today that this is the first acting category of the 21st century not to feature a nominee with a crying scene. That is insane and also cool as hell. I can’t verify that, but I believe it because it sounds right and also I don’t want to live in a world where something that outrageous can’t be true.

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: Knives Out, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

The surprises: Knives Out and 1917 were far from guarantees here.

The snubs: Booksmart and The Farewell are the popular consensus snubs here. People were also pulling for Hustlers and Us in this one, even though those were longshots.

What should win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Tarantino is almost always the answer in this category when he’s in it.

What will win: It’s starting to look more and more like Parasite, but it could go either way between it and Hollywood. Either way, this is the best Oscars race ever. There is some justice.

Fun fact: Rian Johnson, director of The Last Jedi, is still enduring hate from people still upset about one of the best ever Star Wars movies. He is now an Oscar nominee. Screw you, people who are so mad about a great movie that they continue to torment its creator.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Little Women, The Two Popes

The surprises: none.

The snubs: nothing high profile. This was pretty clearly the lineup.

What should win: Irishman or Little Women. These are the two that aren’t war crimes, and they’re both phenomenal. Edgy Clown has maybe the worst screenplay I’ve ever seen in a movie, and Jojo Rabbit’s is so painfully tone deaf. Two Popes isn’t great either: I like the movie, but Anthony McCarten is a menace, a dangerous hack who thinks it’s okay to drop a six-hour detour into the middle of a great character piece. Irishman gave us such lines as “you might be demonstrating a failure to show appreciation”, which is usable literally every day in random conversation. As incredible as Little Women is, I’m saying give it to The Irishman.

What will win: Jojo Rabbit, because this is hell.

Fun fact: Last year, Anthony McCarten wrote Bohemian Rhapsody, a script so embarrassingly bad I declared it the worst ever. This year, he goes up against Edgy Clown, the screenplay that dethroned it.

Best Cinematography

The nominees: The Irishman, Edgy Clown, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The surprises: something as great yet weird as The Lighthouse getting any recognition is always a surprise, and it’s always cool.

The snubs: Parasite getting shafted in favor of Edgy Clown is a war crime. Ad Astra missing is also not great, but that really didn’t have much buzz.

What should win: I finally saw 1917. It’s that. Maybe the greatest cinematography of any movie since Barry Lyndon (hyperbole. But maybe.) I’m keeping the Lighthouse still there because I can and because I would like to continue celebrating both the existence of that movie and the fact that it got an Oscar nomination.

Yeah man. That’s the stuff.

What will win: 1917. Not even close.

Best Film Editing

The nominees: Ford V Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Parasite

The surprises: Edgy Clown and Jojo Rabbit weren’t supposed to be here.

The snubs: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood missing is disgraceful. 1917 had some buzz (it won the critics choice award for editing last night), which was immediately met with backlash regarding how little editing is required for the one take gambit.

What should win: Parasite. Without saying too much, there’s one sequence towards the middle of the film that stands out as one of the best edited in recent memory. Irishman is a viable contender too (Thelma is the GOAT). The editing in Edgy Clown sucks, so hopefully it isn’t that. I just really dislike Edgy Clown.

What will win: Irishman? I think? Not sure.

Fun fact: this is a critical category for BP hopefuls. Since 1989, only one BP winner missed a nod in this category, which is bad news for titanic candidates Once Upon a time in Hollywood and 1917. HOWEVER: the one winner to miss an editing nod… was Birdman, the last major one-take film. Does this mean this doesn’t really matter for 1917? It’s certainly interesting.

Best International Feature Film

The Nominees: Corpus Christi, Honeyland, Les Miserables, Pain and Glory, Parasite

The surprises: Not really anything.

The snubs: Celine Sciamma’s Portrait of a Lady on Fire wasn’t even up for consideration due to France’s submission of Les Miserables, but the critical adoration it received qualify it for a mention here. Mati Diop’s Atlantics is the other recipient of massive acclaim that was left out.

What should win: Parasite is basically the best movie ever, but DAMN do I love Pain and Glory. Give this to Pain and Glory and BP to Parasite and we’ll call it even.

What will win: Parasite. Despite what I’m about to tell you, there’s no stopping it here.

Fun fact: Parasite’s distributor, Neon, hasn’t campaigned in this category at all, in the hopes that it will be considered more strongly in other categories, such as BP. This complicates things slightly, because if it works, we’d be in uncharted territory. But it won’t.

Best Documentary Feature

The Nominees: American Factory, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, For Sama, Honeyland

The surprises: Two foreign language contenders, in For Sama and Honeyland.

The snubs: This marks the second year in a row where the heavy favorite to win the whole category (Won’t You Be My Neighbor) has missed a nod. This year, it’s Apollo 11.

What should win: Honeyland? Honeyland is pretty good.

What will win: Apollo 11’s snub has thrown this into chaos, so I don’t really know. I’m saying American Factory, because of the involvement of Higher Ground Productions, the production company founded by Barack and Michelle Obama.

Fun fact: It’s the Obama thing.

Best Original Score

The nominees: Edgy Clown, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

The surprises: none.

The snubs: MIDSOMMAR. But that was never getting in, nor did I have any hope of that, so I’ll reserve my anger for other things.

What should win: 1917! I had this as Edgy Clown, but now I can officially say that it should win zero awards! To hell with it! Thomas Newman’s 1917 work is, if not clearly better, clearly used better. It may, at times, be a bit much, but who cares, it’s a movie predicated on being too much, and it manages to pull it off. Hildur Guðnadóttir’s Edgy Clown score is still exceptional. If only it had a better movie to stand on. Randy Newman’s Marriage Story work is great too, it’s just that it doesn’t really fit the film. And it’s always tempting to say the Williams Star Wars score.

What will win: Edgy Clown.

Fun fact: Cousins Randy and Thomas Newman are competing against each other in this category (Marriage Story and 1917, respectively). They’ve done this a lot, yet neither of them has won in this category (Randy has 2 wins for song, however).

Best Production Design

The nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

The surprises: we’re at the point with these categories where nobody’s really surprised at anything because nobody was making any legit predictions.

The snubs: The Lighthouse. That movie rules and the titular location is fantastically assembled. Some people will tell you that Edgy Clown’s depiction of societal decay deserves a nod. These people are fools.

What should win: It comes down to Parasite, and the excellent main house set, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s brilliant recreation of 1969 Los Angeles. I’m saying Hollywood, because Parasite’s set never has a moment in the spotlight quite this brilliant:

What will win: Hollywood. That’s gonna be pretty hard to ignore.

Fun fact: I have seen Once Upon a Time in Hollywood all the way through twice. I have watched the above scene… more than that. It’s basically my favorite scene in any movie ever this year.

Best Costume Design

The nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Edgy Clown, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The surprises: see this section above

The snubs: People are pissed that Dolemite is My Name missed in this category. This is another one I haven’t seen yet, but a quick glance at the costumes shows that it should’ve gotten in over Edgy Clown.

What should win: Once Upon a Time. The period detail combined with the instantly iconic Cliff Booth Hawaiian shirt puts it over the top.

What will win: Hollywood or Little Women, likely the former. The Academy hates women.

And so we come to the end of this preview. The Oscars are early this year, on Sunday, February 9th. I imagine things will be totally chill until then.

92nd Academy Awards Preview

September is upon us, and has been for two weeks now, which means that it’s officially* awards season (*not officially). So, since this is a blog maintained by an oscars-crazed lunatic (my credentials include memorizing every best picture winner and also hating the whole thing), I’m going to go into depth, looking at pretty much every possible contender for awards. There’s so much to go through here, so this introduction is now over. On to the movies, of which there are several.

I will continue to update this post as awards season progresses.

The Two Popes- dir. Fernando Meirelles

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Actor (Jonathan Pryce), Best Supporting Actor (Anthony Hopkins), Best Director, Best Original Screenplay

This, in my mind, is the one to watch. Starring two beloved veteran actors playing noted figures and already getting rave reviews that indicate that it could contend for best picture. In addition to this, it has to be the heavy favorite for best actor for Pryce. He’s a fantastic actor who’s never won, and there is the Anthony McCarten effect- he’s penned the scripts for the last two best actor winners (Bohemian Rhapsody and Darkest Hour), in addition to 2014’s The Theory of Everything, which also won that award.

Harriet- dir. Kasi Lemmons

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Best Director, Best Original Screenplay

This is a biopic about Harriet Tubman, making it an immediate contender. Erivo was phenomenal last year in Widows and Bad Times at the El Royale, and seems like one of two major contenders for best actress (more on that later). And Lemmons has been around for a while and never contended for anything awards-wise. This one is a clear contender.

1917- dir. Sam Mendes

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography (Roger Deakins)

Mendes has won already for American Beauty and this is his return to non-franchise movies after a couple James Bond movies. This is a serious best picture contender, but the one that it has to be the favorite for is cinematography. The legendary Roger Deakins finally won for Blade Runner 2049 two years ago and made his return this year with two movies. The first is The Goldfinch, which will not be mentioned in this preview due to being relentlessly crapped on by critics. The second is 1917, which is apparently shot in one continuous long take (or looks like it. Think Birdman or Rope). Maybe the academy won’t go for Deakins twice in such a short period of time, but that feels unlikely with this subject matter. Oh, and it’s a war movie, so that’s why it’s a best picture contender.

Marriage Story- dir. Noah Baumbach

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Adam Driver), Best Actress (Scarlett Johansson), Best supporting Actress (Laura Dern), Best Original Screenplay

The reviews for this one surprised me, not because they were overwhelmingly positive, I saw that coming, but because it could be a big contender. This film, along with The Report, is one of the roles that signals that it could be Driver’s year to win, but the biggest chance this movie has at an Oscar is Laura Dern, whose role looks like her strongest chance to win one of these (oh please please god please). It’s also one of Netflix’s many films of note this season, with The Two Popes being the strongest. But it’s about time that Baumbach had a contender, and this looks like the one.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- dir. Quentin Tarantino

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Best Supporting Actor (Brad Pitt), Best Supporting Actress (Margot Robbie)

I’ve written extensively on this film, my favorite of the year so far, already. Suffice it to say that DiCaprio’s career best performance should garner attention, as should Brad Pitt’s co-lead turn that will probably be campaigned for as supporting. Robbie should and hopefully will contend for supporting actress. This might also be the one that gets Tarantino his picture or director win, as it’d be a fitting one to award him for. The screenplay rules too. I love this movie.

The Irishman- dir. Martin Scorsese

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Actor (Robert DeNiro), Best Supporting Actor (Joe Pesci), Best Visual Effects

Scorsese’s three and a half hour (too short, if you ask me) Netflix mob epic should be interesting. No reviews here yet, as it hasn’t yet debuted. DeNiro’s performance should be one to watch, as should Pesci’s. The material is perfect for an oscar contender, and it seems like the kind of thing that Scorsese usually nails. The most interesting thing here, however, is visual effects. The de-aging has been the subject of a lot of the conversation around the film. It could make or break the whole thing, and it’s the first time something like this has been attempted. It could be a big contender in that category if it all goes well.

Parasite- dir. Bong Joon-Ho

Awards contending for: Best picture, Best Director, Best International Film

Bong’s Palme d’Or winner has been called the best film of the year by many critics. After Roma broke into the race last year, earning 10 nominations and 3 awards, the opportunity for a foreign film to win has never been more real. This is at least a lock for international film, which South Korea has never won. If it were to win the big one, it would be the second Palme d’Or winner to win Best Picture. The first? 1955’s Marty, the first Palme winner.

Ford v Ferrari- dir. James Mangold

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Christian Bale), Best Original Screenplay, Best Sound Mixing/Editing

Logan director James Mangold breaks into the Oscar race with this racing drama. It looks like the perfect contender, boasting everything from a period setting to Christian Bale. It has received praise from critics, including some who have pointed out that it feels like a strong contender for sound awards.

Joker- dir. Todd Phillips

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best adapted screenplay, Best Actor (Joaquin Phoenix)

Look, I’m not gonna get into the discourse on this one (mainly because I haven’t seen it yet). But it’s clearly a major contender after its Venice Golden Lion win (the last two winners of that were Roma and The Shape of Water). Phoenix is the strongest contender here: he’s overdue for a win and would be the second person to play the Joker to win an Oscar for it. The film’s best picture chances mainly hinge on whether or not it’s perceived as “too dangerous”, which, I’m sorry, is ridiculous. I know I said no discourse but if a movie is taken the wrong way by someone, it isn’t the movie’s fault. That being said, I haven’t seen it. This is one to watch, for several reasons.

The Report- dir. Scott Z Burns

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Adam Driver), Best Supporting Actress (Annette Bening) Best Original Screenplay

This sounds like a pretty standard Oscar contender- based on recent real events, well reviewed, about people searching for the truth about other people who are doing evil things and etc. Like I said, standard. But Driver rules and so does Bening, so I don’t know.

Pain and Glory- dir. Pedro Almodovar

Awards contending for: Best International Film, Best Actor (Antonio Banderas)

Almodovar! The legendary Spanish director is already a 2-time Oscar winner- he took the 2000 International (then-Foreign language) film award for his classic All About My Mother. More impressively, his 2002 masterpiece Talk to Her won Best Original Screenplay, the first foreign language winner of said award since 1966. For his 2006 film Volver, Penelope Cruz earned a best Actress nod. So what I’m saying is, his films have shown an ability to earn Oscar nominations. Pain and Glory sounds like a deeply personal film in the vein of Fellini’s 8 1/2. It’s an international film nom lock and a legitimate Actor contender. Don’t be shocked if it can sneak into the screenplay, picture, or director race.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood- dir. Marielle Heller

Awards Contending For: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor (Tom Hanks), Best Adapted Screenplay

Heller directed last year’s Can You Ever Forgive Me?, which earned 3 nominations. That film, however, was not based on the life of a beloved historical figure (it handled the story of a generally derided one). This is a Mr Rogers biopic featuring Tom Hanks. This is an easy one. Also, Hanks has never been nominated for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar, this would be his first.

Jojo Rabbit- dir. Taika Waititi

Awards Contending for: Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay

Jojo Rabbit is, in the wake of its TIFF premiere, an interesting one. This is Fox Searchlight’s big contender this year, which automatically makes it one to watch. What We Do in the Shadows and Thor: Ragnarok director Taika Waititi has, oddly, become an Oscar contender (YESSSSS), but things could get complicated: this has been getting seriously mixed reviews. Some critics are calling it brilliant, and some are calling it trash. The consensus emerging is that it contains a great use of a David Bowie song, so I’m trying to guess which one it is. Oh and also I’m worried that it’s gonna be bad, which would suck. This one is extremely interesting.

UPDATE: Oh boy. Jojo Rabbit just won the People’s Choice Award at Toronto. That solidifies it as a major player and a lock for a best picture nod. Last year’s winner, was Green Book, which… I don’t feel like talking about it but you all know what happened there. Jojo Rabbit instantly becomes impossible to ignore.

Judy- dir. Rupert Goold

Awards Contending for: Best Actress (Renee Zellweger)

Here’s the other half of the Best Actress race, along with Harriet. Zellweger is already an Oscar winner, but she hasn’t really been around for a while. This is a perfect choice for a comeback role- playing a famed tragic actress is total Oscar bait. That’s about all this one can contend for, though.

The Farewell- dir. Lulu Wang

Awards Contending for: Best Original Screenplay, Best Actress (Awkwafina), Best Picture

This is another interesting one. I doubt it can grab a picture nod, but it’s not out of the question. The other two listed awards are also maybes at best, but they’re conceivable. This one could really go either way.

The Lion King- dir. Jon Favreau

Awards contending for: Best animated feature (if they get off their stupid high horse and admit that it’s animated), Best original song (I’m pretty sure, I don’t have the energy to look it up for this movie.)

Blech.

Rocketman- dir. Dexter Fletcher

Awards Contending for: Best Actor (Taron Egerton), Best Original Song ((I’m Gonna) Love Me Again by Elton John and Taron Egerton), Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing

Egerton is the biggest contender here. He’s playing Elton John and, unlike last year’s Best Actor winner who played a legendary singer, did his own singing (Not bitter at all). He probably won’t win, as the Best Actor race is crowded this year. Song is another one that it could potentially win, because, again, Elton John. This is, however, a biopic, so it’s gonna be hard to ignore come awards season. However, unlike Bohemian Rhapsody, this one isn’t a drooling celebration of how its subject matter was the second coming of Jesus Christ (NOPE NOT BITTER THAT IT WON FOUR OSCARS), it’s more of an accurate depiction of the ups and downs of his life, which could hurt it. Anyway I love this movie and I hope it wins everything.

Little Women- dir. Greta Gerwig

Awards contending for: Best picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actress (Saoirse Ronan)

Adaptation of a beloved period novel directed by a former Oscar nominee and starring a beloved nominee (Ronan). This is a slam dunk for multiple nods, and it’ll probably be great. This is an easy one.

The Laundromat- dir. Steven Soderbergh

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Meryl Streep), Best Original Screenplay

Although apparently, this one isn’t a big awards season priority for Netflix, it has an awards season pedigree- Soderbergh is always one to watch and that’s nothing compared with Streep’s stature. Another to watch, but maybe not a huge one.

Toy Story 4- dir. Josh Cooley

Awards contending for: Best Animated film, Best Original Song (The Ballad of the lonesome cowboy by Randy Newman and Chris Stapleton)

Pixar. Toy Story movie. 3 won for animated film, and the first two only didn’t because the award didn’t exist. It probably wouldn’t if they hadn’t existed. You can pencil this one in as the winner now.

Bombshell- dir. Jay Roach

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best original screenplay, Best actress (Charlize Theron), Best supporting actress (Nicole Kidman)

Coinciding with the Roger Ailes miniseries starring Russell Crowe, this film about fox news employees rising up against the culture of toxic masculinity sounds like this year’s Vice- a film about the current political climate that should appeal to Academy voters. This is a bit of an unknown, as another one without any reviews out, so we don’t know how it’ll be received.

Us- dir. Jordan Peele

Awards contending for: Best Actress (Lupita Nyong’o), Best original screenplay

Nyong’o delivers- hot take time!- the greatest performance in horror movie history and one of the greatest ever (I’m a sucker for dual roles. My favorite Gyllenhaal performance is Enemy). If anything, actress and screenplay are this masterpiece’s only hope. In an ideal world, this would be a serious contender for best picture, Lupita would be a lock, and It Follows cinematographer Mike Gioulakis would get recognized for his stellar work. Give it all the Oscars ever. Sadly, that won’t happen. But for the moment when I was writing this paragraph it sounded like a reality, and that was fun.

Uncut Gems- dir. Josh and Benny Safdie

Awards contending for: Best Actor (Adam Sandler), Best Original Screenplay

Sandler’s dramatic roles have historically ruled (see Punch Drunk Love), and this sounds like his best shot at an Oscar. The Safdie brothers, known for 2017’s Pattinson-starring crime thriller Good Time, have, according to reviews, created a film that stays true to their distinct style and also has a shot at awards.

A Hidden Life- dir. Terrence Malick

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Director, Best cinematography

Malick’s best-reviewed film since 2011’s The Tree of Life is consequently his biggest contender. Yet, it’s kind of a longshot- Malick’s recent work hasn’t attracted academy attention and it isn’t really being pushed hard. Still, it’s definitely one to watch.

Dolemite is my Name- dir. Craig Brewer

Awards contending for: Best Actor (Eddie Murphy), Best original screenplay

Netflix’s Rudy Ray Moore biopic could land Murphy his second Oscar nod (after Dreamgirls). This would be his first lead actor nomination, which is realistic because it’s a biopic, which is the only way you’re allowed to be nominated for Oscars. Not bitter.

Hustlers- dir. Lorene Scafaria

Awards contending for: Best supporting actress (Jennifer Lopez), Best adapted screenplay

In the wake of the stellar reviews of this film, with some comparing it to the work of Martin Scorsese, Lopez has emerged as an Oscar hopeful out of the blue. If the Academy is as kind to the film as critics have been, more recognition could be in order, and the screenplay category could be the place.

The Lighthouse- dir. Robert Eggers

Awards Contending For: Best Actor (Robert Pattinson, Willem Dafoe), Best Cinematography

The Witch director Robert Eggers returns after four years with this awesome-looking psychological nightmare. I’m not sure if this can really break into the Oscar race, but maybe. And it’s gonna rule.

Just Mercy- dir. Destin Daniel Cretton

Awards Contending For: Best actor (Michael B Jordan), Best Supporting Actor (Jamie Foxx), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Picture

Foxx is the big contender here, but I don’t think you can rule it out for other awards. By the way, we’ve long ago reached the portion where all of these are longshots in everything, especially Best Picture. But this one feels like it could sneak in late.

Honey Boy- dir. Alma Har’el

Awards Contending For: Best supporting actor (Shia LaBeouf), Best Original Screenplay

This film, in which Shia LaBeouf plays his own abusive father, could get him some consideration. I’m not sure if it can get anything above that, but it’s worth noting.

Avengers: Endgame- dir. Anthony Russo and Joe Russo

Awards Contending For: Best Visual Effects, Best Picture, Best Actor (Robert Downey Jr)

Outside of visual effects, this probably won’t be nominated for anything. The best actor field is too crowded for Downey to sneak in, and it doesn’t have the cultural pull that brought Black Panther into the best picture fold. Still, it’s worth mentioning this because of its immense popularity and the fact that people think that it deserves Oscars because it capped off a 10 year run of superhero movies (not bitter. Although I did love this movie for that reason, even though I don’t think it should garner Oscar nods).

The Aeronauts- dir. Tom Harper

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Actress (Felicity Jones), Best supporting actor (Eddie Redmayne)

I think that this one is gonna get attention- it feels like the kind of bland period thing that the Oscars love. And apparently Jones is pretty good.

Motherless Brooklyn- dir. Edward Norton

Awards contending for: Best picture, Best Actor (Norton), Best Original Song (Daily Battles by Thom Yorke)

The reviews here aren’t very good, which isn’t a good sign, but the fact that it’s Norton’s passion project still holds weight. Apparently the song is great. I haven’t heard it but it sounds like it’s gonna contend.

Cats- dir. Tom Hooper

Awards contending for: Best Picture, Best Visual Effects, probably more

I’m dead serious. I had this pegged as best picture material since it was announced. It’s a musical, it’s directed by perennial Oscar bait peddler Tom Hooper, and it’s gonna suck (I was scared of this movie BEFORE IT WAS COOL). Then the trailer came along and made it a joke. But I still think it’s a contender for all the same reasons as before. And it’s guaranteed to win for DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY.

This concludes the awards preview, in which I’ve covered 33 films. Which means I left at least one massive contender off that nobody sees coming. Because the Oscars are dumb. And yet I still love them. I’m gonna go lie down.

American Beauty: an infuriating and at times brilliant movie

Today I decided that it was time to finally get to watching American Beauty. The 1999 film won the Oscar for best picture, and is fiercely debated up to today, 20 years later. Some call it a classic, some going so far as to label it one of the worst movies ever made.

It’s kind of both.

There are moments, moments of phenomenal acting or filmmaking, that elevate it to the status of a truly great film (see Kevin Spacey’s delivery of “I rule”, which is one of my favorite movie moments ever and which I will be referring to multiple times). And there are moments, like oh I don’t know EVERY FREAKING SCENE WITH WES BENTLEY’S ATROCIOUS CHARACTER, that are war crimes and ruin the film. So what I’m trying to say is that my feelings on American Beauty, a couple hours removed from my first watch, are complicated. I’ve more or less settled (for now) on the idea that it’s equal parts masterwork and dumpster fire. So let’s get into why.

I’ll start with the good: the acting is among the best ever (save for Peter Gallagher and Thora Birch, who does have some good moments. Wes Bentley doesn’t turn in a bad performance, it’s just that the character makes me want to hurt something). Spacey (setting aside the fact that he’s an awful person who deserves what he’s getting) is amazing in this film, and deserving of his Oscar. His scenes are darkly comic and his acting is spellbinding (the line deliveries on “I Rule” and “Don’t interrupt me” are amazing). Maybe even better is Annette Bening, who was robbed of the Oscar. Chris Cooper, even though he’s playing Every Chris Cooper Character, nails it and steals all of his scenes as an abominable homophobic possible-nazi. The scenes concentrated around these characters are brilliant and eminently entertaining and thought provoking.

Which brings me to the bad. Some scenes, and there’s no better way to put this, SUCK. The plastic bag scene? GARBAGE. The scene where Cooper erroneously thinks his son is sexually involved with Spacey’s character (aged super poorly, by the way) due to a poorly-placed wall? STUPID AS HELL. COMICALLY DUMB. “Why did you film the frozen hobo? Because it was beautiful” OH MY GOD SHOOT ME IN THE FACE. This is a case of a film that thinks it’s super smart but isn’t (some took issue with Vice last year for the same thing, but that one actually is smart). It’s in these moments when it feels like Crash, which (unlike American Beauty) is wholly awful and has no redeeming qualities (OK, one: Matt Dillon is pretty great). Again, the Wes Bentley character is a pestilence.

So that leaves the ugly. Which, of course, is the movie’s treatment of its characters. It’s a great film when it seems like it doesn’t condone the actions of Spacey’s or Bentley’s characters. These are, like every other character, reprehensible, awful people. If the movie had realized this and depicted them as such, then there would be few to no issues. But it didn’t, so it ends up a deeply flawed movie that also happens to be really good. The ending seems to serve as redemption, of sorts, for Spacey’s character, or at least it establishes him as a good person. And this is where it lost me. Up to that point, you could subscribe to the interpretation that it’s presenting its characters as the despicable people they are. But it diverts from this and presents Spacey’s character as a hero, glamorizing the awful things he does for the vast majority of the runtime. This is without even mentioning the ugliest part, which is the Lolita-esque plot that feels as though it’s painting Mena Suvari’s character as equally, if not more, responsible. Also, Bentley doesn’t get excused for being a massive creep and total sociopath just because Chris Cooper’s character is far worse. Like I said, deeply flawed.

So American Beauty is difficult. I wanted to love it, and there’s so much of it to love, but there’s also way too much that dwarves that and makes it hard to view at as truly great. It ends up falling in the middle, getting a rating that’s pretty much average. Except it’s anything but. It’s thoroughly bipolar, with every scene being either great or painfully bad. The message it’s trying to get across is heavy-handed and feels wrong. Its morals are hard to get past, and it does feel somewhat dated. But there are spots of brilliance and mastery (I need to say this again: the plastic bag scene isn’t one of these). There are spots that feel like they’re taken from a masterwork, and they kind of are. Yet they’re also from a garbage movie. It’s still not super clear to me. Maybe it will be at some point. I don’t know. Whatever. I just love the “I rule” scene.